Illinois (12-20) vs. Iowa (21-10)

Statistically speaking, this game looks like a mismatch. Illinois is just 12-20 overall with a Bet Rating of 1.40, while Iowa is 21-10 with a rock-solid Bet Rating of 2.13. Additionally, the last time these teams tipped off, the Hawkeyes cruised to a 95-71 victory.

Still, there is other relevant data to consider.

For instance, Iowa is limping into the Big Ten tournament, having lost four consecutive games straight-up (SU) and eight in a row against the spread (ATS). What’s more, in that initial Jan. 20 match-up, the Hawkeyes lived up to their team nickname by shooting 68 percent from the field, including a ridiculous 15-of-21 (71.4 percent) from beyond the arc.

Illinois head coach Brad Underwood remembers the night very well.

“I remember every three that went in,” he said. “I remember the first 10 all going in. Believe me, I haven’t forgotten that one. They were great. They were terrific that night. We’ve got to get back and watch film and make the right adjustments, I hope, and come out and play again. That’s what this is all about.”

I’d be very surprised if we see a repeat of that performance this evening, which makes me think the under might offer some value tonight. The O/U line has been set at 154 — which is actually down 5.5 points from last time — and that has been exceeded just half a dozen times in the last 30 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 15-11-1 during that period (there were three games without an official total).

• Illinois is 19-17 ATS versus Iowa since 1997.
• 18 of the past 30 games in this series have gone under the total.
• These two teams have scored more than 154 combined points (today’s O/U line) just six times in their past 30 matchups.

Play: Iowa (-4 ½ points or greater) and/or under 155.

Texas (16-15) vs. No. 18 Kansas (23-8)

Kansas has won 21 of the past 25 match-ups between these two Big 12 rivals, including 10 in a row prior to Texas’ 73-63 victory at Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas on Jan. 29. In that game, the Jayhawks found themselves in foul trouble early and often, as they were outscored at the charity stripe 21-13.

It was only the second time that Kansas was whistled for more fouls than Texas — which leads the Big 12 in three-point attempt percentage (nearly half of the Longhorns’ field goal tries come from beyond the arc) — since Jan. 24, 2015.

In the past 30 meetings between these two teams, the winning margin has exceeded today’s 2 ½-point spread 29 times and database studies indicate that Kansas offers bettors about a 7-8 percent Kelly advantage to win and the under offers a 5-6 percent Kelly advantage.

• The Longhorns are 20-15 against the spread versus the Jayhawks since 1997.
• The over/under is 15-15 in the last 30 games of this series.
• Kansas is 5-1 SU against Texas over the past three seasons.

Play: Kansas (-2 1/2 or greater) and/or over 137 1/2.