Northern Kentucky Faces Oakland in Horizon League Semi-Finals

This game — a Horizon League tournament semifinal contest — will be played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan, which is good news for the favored Norse, who are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games overall, yet 8-1 ATS in their last nine on a neutral site.

The Databasebetting.com Basketball Betting Report data also suggests that Northern Kentucky is a strong favorite Monday evening.

Teams favored by less than 10 points with a Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater and a points for/point against margin of +10 or greater have offered bettors an 8-9 percent Kelly advantage since 2007.

That said, this does look like a very contentious game. This year, the teams split their two previous matchups, with both winning at home. And, remember, tonight’s venue is only a half-hour away from the Oakland campus. What’s more, in the Golden Grizzlies’ loss on Feb. 9, they shot just 39.7 percent from the field and 20 percent from beyond the arc — well below their season marks of 47.1 percent and 38.6 percent respectively.

There may be value in betting the under as well. Historically, matchups of this type have produced an ROI of around 6 percent when the total has fallen between 140-160 points (today’s game features an O/U line of 151).

  • Oakland is 5-3 ATS against Northern Kentucky all-time.
  • In eight previous matchups, the under has cashed on six occasions.
  • The winning margin has exceeded today’s spread six times in eight games.   

Author: DDS