The Rebel Stakes is a Grade 2 Thoroughbred horse race that takes place annually at Oaklawn Park Racetrack in Hot Springs, Arkansas. It is a prep race for the Kentucky Derby (G1) run on a dirt surface over 1 1/16 miles.

The first Rebel Stakes was run in 1961 and won by a horse named Mr. Jive. Since then, it has become one of the most important races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Over the years, the Rebel Stakes has produced many notable winners, including Triple Crown champions American Pharoah and Omaha, as well as other top racehorses such as Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lookin At Lucky, and California Chrome.

In 2013, the race was split into two divisions to accommodate a large number of entries. The two divisions were captured by Will Take Charge and Oxbow, who went on to finish first and second in the Preakness Stakes that year.

The Rebel Stakes has undergone a few changes over the years, including changes to its distance and grading. It was upgraded to a Grade II race in 1989, and its purse has increased to $1,000,000. It remains an important race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

I don’t have a strong wagering opinion on this race, though I disagree with those predicting a wicked pace. That’s not what my figures show, despite the majority of the entrants having front-running styles.

Given that 34% of the 61 races carded at 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park this year have been won in wire-to-wire fashion, this seems reasonable. It also makes me think that 6-REINCARNATE (6-1 fair odds) is one of the horses to beat, though he doesn’t offer much value (if any). Plus, Tim Yakteen takes over the training duties from Bob Baffert and it’s hard to say whether he will have the same magic touch that Baffert does. (Reincarnate’s last race was vintage Baffert, as the son of Good Magic went fast early yet refused to yield late and won by a neck.)

If, in fact, Reincarnate has an untreated skin rash and doesn’t run to form, I think 4-GUN PILOT (6-1) might offer the most value—perhaps the only value—in the race. Yeah, he got beat 5 ¼ lengths by the Brad Cox trainee 1-VERIFYING (3-1), on Jan. 14, but he came back to record a race-best -3 late speed ration (LSR) last time. He’s also got tactical speed.

Lastly, it’s hard to look past the aforementioned Verifying, who not only steals jockey Florent Geroux from rival 5-GIANT MISCHIEF (6-1), also trained by Cox, but he seems to be on a positive career arc after throwing a clunker in the BC Juvenile (G1).

I’m going to use the horses that meet or exceed my fair odds in an exacta box, and I’ll consider win bets on 1, 4, and 6 using the same criterion.