New York has been the site of many great heists. One of the most brazen occurred on Dec. 11, 1978, at John F. Kennedy International Airport. On that day, a group associated with the Lucchese crime family stole an estimated $5 million in cash and $1 million in jewels.
The Lufthansa heist was notable not only for the amount of money involved but also for the violence and chaos that followed the robbery. Several of the people involved were later murdered, and the robbery and its aftermath were depicted in the popular movie “Goodfellas.”
Luckily, there was no bloodshed at Aqueduct Race Track on Saturday, but the robbery was just as bold.
After Raise Cain won the Gotham Stakes (G3) — by 7 ½ lengths — at odds of 23-1, and Slip Mahoney finished second at 6-1, winning punters were no doubt salivating, expecting a double-digit payoff. When the show photo revealed that 30-1 General Banker caught 3-1 favorite Eyeing Clover to complete the trifecta, who could blame those holding winning tickets for having their sights set on that pool Clark Griswold pined for — or at least an above-ground version.
Yet, when the race was declared official and the payoffs posted, my thoughts immediately went to Volponi.
Volponi, many will remember, won the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in 2002, and it was later revealed that a bettor named Derrick Davis held the only winning pick-6 ticket.
In fact, Davis held several winning tickets. Although the pick-6 paid “only” 428,392, Davis cashed out for $3.1 million and was so prescient that he singled several legs.
Of course, it turned out that Davis’ impression of Nostradamus was facilitated by an Autotote employee and computer programmer named Chris Harn who hacked the system. Davis, Harn, and another friend, Glen DaSilva, all served (minimal) time in federal prison.
Now, I’m not saying the same thing happened here—given the margin of victory and some other things I’ll talk about in a bit—I suspect this was a betting coup, as opposed to a programming plot. But the New York Racing Association (NYRA) needs to investigate nonetheless.
Let’s start with the obvious: the exotic payoffs were way too low.
In the table below, I computed the fair $1 exacta and $0.50 trifecta payoffs for all 10 races at Aqueduct on March 4. I won’t bore you with all the math, but here is a general overview of what I did (I advise you to skip this part if you’re already feeling drowsy):
- First, I determined the horse’s share of the pool. For the winning horse, this was easy — I simply divided the amount bet on it by the total pool. For the place horse, an additional step was required. The amount bet on it was divided by the total pool minus the money bet on the winner. The show horse’s percentage involved dividing its share of the pool by the total show pool minus the amount wagered on the first- and second-place finishers.
- I adjusted for takeout (16%) and breakage. This was accomplished by summing up the percentages associated with the final odds and multiplying that by the figures obtained above.
- Lastly, I adjusted for the higher takeout rates on exactas (18.5%) and trifectas (24%).
Aqueduct, March 4, 2023
| Race 1 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $240,444 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | 11 | 8.1% | $11,344 | 7% | $4,016 | 8% | $1,589 | 7% |
| 2 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 3 | 1 | 46.5% | $64,200 | 38% | $15,164 | 30% | $10,349 | 45% |
| 4 | 7 | 12.0% | $16,834 | 10% | $4,897 | 10% | $2,063 | 9% |
| 5 | 7/2 | 21.1% | $29,502 | 18% | $8,774 | 18% | $3,272 | 14% |
| 6 | 2 | 32.8% | $45,442 | 27% | $17,189 | 34% | $5,801 | 25% |
| 120.5% | $167,325 | 100% | $50,042 | 100% | $23,077 | 100% | ||
| Race 2 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $302,640 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | 5/2 | 27.8% | $44,546 | 23% | $11,108 | 16% | $7,581 | 18% |
| 2 | 10 | 8.5% | $13,711 | 7% | $4,384 | 6% | $3,014 | 7% |
| 3 | 7 | 11.5% | $18,485 | 10% | $7,893 | 11% | $4,610 | 11% |
| 4 | 9 | 9.4% | $15,117 | 8% | $10,855 | 16% | $6,753 | 16% |
| 5 | 28 | 3.4% | $5,538 | 3% | $3,504 | 5% | $2,268 | 6% |
| 6 | 4/5 | 55.6% | $87,169 | 46% | $29,329 | 42% | $15,350 | 37% |
| 7 | 21 | 4.4% | $7,011 | 4% | $2,785 | 4% | $1,620 | 4% |
| 120.6% | $191,579 | 100.0% | $69,862 | 100.0% | $41,199 | 100.0% | ||
| Race 3 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $287,512 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 2 | 5/2 | 28.6% | $46,375 | 24% | $16,983 | 24% | $5,549 | 24% |
| 3 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 4 | 2 | 32.3% | $51,811 | 27% | $13,071 | 19% | $4,039 | 17% |
| 5 | 7/2 | 20.6% | $33,365 | 17% | $18,749 | 27% | $5,701 | 24% |
| 6 | 2 | 29.9% | $48,369 | 25% | $14,640 | 21% | $5,529 | 24% |
| 7 | 10 | 8.5% | $13,874 | 7% | $6,949 | 10% | $2,504 | 11% |
| 119.8% | $193,796 | 100% | $70,393 | 100% | $23,323 | 100% | ||
| Race 4 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $408,992 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | 19 | 4.8% | $11,877 | 4% | $4,632 | 6% | $2,552 | 8% |
| 2 | 3 | 23.0% | $56,381 | 19% | $18,817 | 23% | $6,036 | 19% |
| 3 | 3 | 22.7% | $55,743 | 19% | $15,176 | 18% | $4,799 | 15% |
| 4 | 32 | 3.0% | $7,355 | 2% | $3,368 | 4% | $2,030 | 6% |
| 5 | 5 | 15.9% | $39,154 | 13% | $12,089 | 15% | $5,163 | 16% |
| 6 | 4/5 | 51.3% | $124,476 | 42% | $28,557 | 35% | $10,782 | 34% |
| 120.7% | $294,988 | 100% | $82,640 | 100% | $31,364 | 100% | ||
| Race 5 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $337,398 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | 8 | 10.8% | $19,838 | 9% | $6,340 | 8% | $2,855 | 8% |
| 2 | 53 | 1.8% | $3,367 | 2% | $1,475 | 2% | $1,038 | 3% |
| 3 | 12 | 7.6% | $14,055 | 6% | $9,077 | 11% | $3,941 | 11% |
| 4 | 2 | 30.8% | $56,653 | 26% | $19,809 | 24% | $7,882 | 22% |
| 5 | 9/2 | 17.5% | $32,155 | 15% | $9,186 | 11% | $5,779 | 16% |
| 6 | 21 | 4.5% | $8,391 | 4% | $4,250 | 5% | $1,873 | 5% |
| 7 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 8 | 2 | 32.8% | $59,818 | 27% | $20,180 | 25% | $8,130 | 22% |
| 9 | 6 | 14.1% | $25,735 | 12% | $10,885 | 13% | $4,678 | 13% |
| 119.9% | $220,013 | 100% | $81,206 | 100% | $36,179 | 100% | ||
| Race 6 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $383,888 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | 11 | 7.8% | $17,717 | 7% | $6,053 | 8% | $2,654 | 7% |
| 2 | 20 | 4.7% | $10,554 | 4% | $7,177 | 9% | $3,898 | 11% |
| 3 | 20 | 4.6% | $10,337 | 4% | $5,505 | 7% | $2,530 | 7% |
| 4 | 91 | 1.1% | $2,460 | 1% | $974 | 1% | $827 | 2% |
| 5 | 3 | 22.5% | $50,467 | 19% | $17,187 | 22% | $7,466 | 21% |
| 6 | 21 | 4.5% | $10,208 | 4% | $3,365 | 4% | $1,564 | 4% |
| 7 | 9 | 9.6% | $21,710 | 8% | $5,491 | 7% | $2,709 | 8% |
| 8 | 6/5 | 43.5% | $98,238 | 36% | $18,989 | 24% | $8,143 | 23% |
| 9 | 7/2 | 21.5% | $48,413 | 18% | $13,404 | 17% | $5,835 | 16% |
| 119.7% | $270,107 | 100% | $78,150 | 100% | $35,631 | 100% | ||
| Race 7 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $342,705 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | 5 | 16.4% | $31,527 | 14% | $12,686 | 16% | $5,455 | 16% |
| 2 | 6 | 13.0% | $24,918 | 11% | $9,254 | 12% | $4,767 | 14% |
| 3 | 8 | 10.5% | $20,316 | 9% | $8,512 | 11% | $4,442 | 13% |
| 4 | 7/2 | 22.0% | $42,351 | 18% | $13,357 | 17% | $6,197 | 19% |
| 5 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 6 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 7 | 4/5 | 55.6% | $106,500 | 46% | $32,939 | 42% | $11,205 | 34% |
| 8 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 9 | 38 | 2.5% | $4,861 | 2% | $2,053 | 3% | $1,358 | 4% |
| 10 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 120.0% | $230,475 | 100% | $78,804 | 100% | $33,426 | 100% | ||
| Race 8 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $329,500 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | 5 | 15.2% | $28,171 | 13% | $8,857 | 12% | $3,440 | 11% |
| 2 | 12 | 7.4% | $13,695 | 6% | $6,213 | 8% | $2,480 | 8% |
| 3 | 2 | 30.8% | $57,046 | 26% | $15,366 | 21% | $6,349 | 20% |
| 4 | 9 | 9.5% | $17,804 | 8% | $7,324 | 10% | $3,642 | 11% |
| 5 | 8 | 10.1% | $18,705 | 8% | $6,576 | 9% | $3,355 | 10% |
| 6 | 2 | 30.8% | $57,529 | 26% | $16,340 | 22% | $6,746 | 21% |
| 7 | 6 | 13.3% | $24,741 | 11% | $11,908 | 16% | $4,877 | 15% |
| 8 | 37 | 2.6% | $4,897 | 2% | $2,082 | 3% | $1,347 | 4% |
| 119.6% | $222,592 | 100% | $74,670 | 100% | $32,238 | 100% | ||
| Race 9 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $829,214 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | 44 | 2.2% | $10,383 | 2% | $4,406 | 3% | $3,213 | 3% |
| 2 | 21 | 4.4% | $20,616 | 4% | $7,392 | 4% | $3,696 | 4% |
| 3 | 31 | 3.1% | $14,412 | 3% | $5,083 | 3% | $2,980 | 3% |
| 4 | 12 | 7.6% | $35,451 | 6% | $9,154 | 5% | $5,281 | 5% |
| 5 | 9/2 | 17.5% | $81,157 | 15% | $19,915 | 12% | $9,675 | 10% |
| 6 | 30 | 3.2% | $15,093 | 3% | $9,704 | 6% | $6,092 | 6% |
| 7 | 8 | 10.9% | $50,592 | 9% | $13,531 | 8% | $7,665 | 8% |
| 8 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 9 | 44 | 2.2% | $10,329 | 2% | $3,569 | 2% | $2,675 | 3% |
| 10 | 6 | 13.7% | $64,138 | 11% | $23,637 | 14% | $12,924 | 13% |
| 11 | 6 | 13.9% | $64,830 | 12% | $23,107 | 13% | $13,361 | 13% |
| 12 | 23 | 4.1% | $19,127 | 3% | $9,003 | 5% | $5,548 | 6% |
| 13 | 3 | 24.1% | $112,123 | 20% | $25,944 | 15% | $15,185 | 15% |
| 14 | 7 | 11.6% | $54,219 | 10% | $15,000 | 9% | $8,702 | 9% |
| 15 | 83 | 1.2% | $5,566 | 1% | $2,720 | 2% | $1,997 | 2% |
| 119.7% | $558,042 | 100% | $172,171 | 100% | $99,001 | 100% | ||
| Race 10 | ||||||||
| Pool Total: $330,930 | ||||||||
| # | Tote Odds | Pct. | Win Pool | Pct. | Place Pool | Pct. | Show Pool | Pct. |
| 1 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 2 | 9 | 9.8% | $17,932 | 8% | $7,920 | 10% | $3,308 | 9% |
| 3 | 5 | 15.9% | $29,037 | 13% | $8,656 | 11% | $4,074 | 11% |
| 4 | 3 | 24.1% | $44,083 | 20% | $10,989 | 14% | $6,823 | 19% |
| 5 | 9 | 10.0% | $18,157 | 8% | $6,955 | 9% | $3,358 | 9% |
| 6 | 7/2 | 22.0% | $39,834 | 18% | $11,234 | 15% | $5,638 | 15% |
| 7 | 24 | 3.9% | $7,040 | 3% | $2,584 | 3% | $1,226 | 3% |
| 8 | 6 | 14.3% | $25,949 | 12% | $14,149 | 19% | $5,754 | 16% |
| 9 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 10 | SC | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | $0 | 0% | |
| 11 | 7 | 12.3% | $22,356 | 10% | $6,762 | 9% | $3,379 | 9% |
| 12 | 12 | 7.4% | $13,488 | 6% | $7,061 | 9% | $3,174 | 9% |
| 119.7% | $217,879 | 100% | $76,313 | 100% | $36,738 | 100% |
| Race 1 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 3 | 38% | $4.80 | $5.70 | $0.90 | $3.60 | $6.70 | $3.10 |
| 6 | 49% | ||||||
| 5 | 47% | ||||||
| Race 2 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 1 | 23% | $7.20 | $5.70 | ($1.50) | $19.70 | $6.70 | ($13.00) |
| 6 | 50% | ||||||
| 5 | 12% | ||||||
| Race 3 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 5 | 17% | $13.70 | $5.70 | ($8.00) | $11.20 | $6.70 | ($4.50) |
| 2 | 33% | ||||||
| 6 | 46% | ||||||
| Race 4 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 5 | 13% | $14.30 | $15.80 | $1.50 | $13.60 | $20.75 | $7.15 |
| 6 | 40% | ||||||
| 2 | 39% | ||||||
| Race 5 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 8 | 27% | $9.20 | $11.70 | $2.50 | $22.70 | $45.75 | $23.05 |
| 4 | 32% | ||||||
| 1 | 14% | ||||||
| Race 6 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 8 | 36% | $22.40 | $29.75 | $7.35 | $52.90 | $89.75 | $36.85 |
| 7 | 9% | ||||||
| 2 | 16% | ||||||
| Race 7 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 1A | 14% | $38.70 | $43.00 | $4.30 | $54.80 | $62.75 | $7.95 |
| 2B | 14% | ||||||
| 4 | 27% | ||||||
| Race 8 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 7 | 11% | $27.60 | $21.90 | ($5.70) | $32.40 | $36.50 | $4.10 |
| 3 | 24% | ||||||
| 6 | 32% | ||||||
| Race 9 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 12 | 3% | $149.80 | $81.25 | ($68.55) | $754.70 | $367.25 | ($387.45) |
| 11 | 14% | ||||||
| 6 | 8% | ||||||
| Race 10 | |||||||
| Fin. | Pct. | Projected $1 Exacta | Actual $1 Exacta | Diff. | Projected $0.50 Trifecta | Actual $0.50 Trifecta | Diff. |
| 5 | 8% | $54.50 | $52.25 | ($2.25) | $180.90 | $136.75 | ($44.15) |
| 6 | 16% | ||||||
| 12 | 11% |
If you look at the chart above, no exacta varied from the projected payoff by more than $8 — except the Gotham exacta, which paid approximately $68 less than predicted. The Gotham trifecta paid a whopping $387 less than expected. Every other trifecta payoff was within $44 of the projected return, and five (of 10) varied by less than $8.
A look at the exacta probables shows that Raise Cain, who finished off the board in the ungraded Leonatus Stakes at Turfway Park prior to his Mine That Bird moment in the Gotham, reveals that someone or a group of “someones” was betting heavily on the son of Violence.
Howgreatisnate was a couple of ticks lower than Raise Cain on the tote board (21-1), yet the exacta payoffs involving the latter were significantly lower than those featuring the former.
| Race 9 $2 Exacta Probables | ||||||||||||||||
| Pool Total: $668,784 | ||||||||||||||||
| # | Odds | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 2 | 21-1 | $1,137 | – | $767 | $813 | $503 | $903 | $509 | SC | $1,657 | $427 | $449 | $890 | $481 | $571 | $3,461 |
| 12 | 23-1 | $965 | $705 | $629 | $470 | $281 | $351 | $472 | SC | $1,336 | $165 | $163 | – | $241 | $295 | $1,667 |
| -15% | -18% | -42% | -44% | -61% | -7% | -19% | -61% | -64% | -50% | -48% | -52% |
It seems clear that somebody knew something. Provided Aqueduct track announcer Chris Griffin didn’t tweet something offensive that would require all hands on deck at NYRA, New York racing officials owe it to the betting public to find out who and what.
