Betting the Lexington Stakes

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The Lexington Stakes is a Grade III American thoroughbred horse race for three-year-old horses, held annually in mid-to-late April at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. The race is run on a dirt track over a distance of 1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs).

The Lexington Stakes was first run in 1936 at the now-defunct Lexington track in Lexington, Kentucky. The inaugural winner was a horse named Bold Venture, who would go on to win the Kentucky Derby later that year. The race was run at various distances before settling at its current distance of 1 1/16 miles in 1947.

The Lexington Stakes has served as a prep race for the Kentucky Derby since the 1940s, and many horses who have competed in the Lexington Stakes have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby or other major races. Notable winners of the Lexington Stakes include Triple Crown winner Citation in 1948, as well as Derby winners Lucky Debonair (1965), Riva Ridge (1972), and Charismatic (1999).

In 1984, the Lexington Stakes was upgraded to Grade II status, but just two years later, was demoted to Grade III. The race has undergone a few changes in location and scheduling over the years, but since 2012 it has been held at Keeneland Race Course, which is also located in Lexington, Kentucky.

The Lexington Stakes is currently sponsored by Stonestreet Farm and carries a purse of $300,000. It is often considered one of the last major prep races for the Kentucky Derby, with many horses using the race as a final tune-up before the Run for the Roses.

Let’s take a look at this year’s field:

LEXINGTON STAKES (G3)

1 1/16 miles (dirt)
Early Speed Ration (ESR): -9
Late Speed Ration (LSR): -3

1-BASELINE BEATER (20-1)
Recorded an 87 par speed figure (PSF) and -4 LSR in breaking his maiden on Feb. 18. He followed that up with a non-challenging ninth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby. Needs to improve — a lot — to contend.

2-REINVEST (30-1)
This guy came very close to meeting today’s early and late speed ration pars last time and trainer Timothy Hamm has a 65% ROI in graded stakes. At 30-1 on the morning line, he looks like an overlay in this spot.

3-DEMOLITION DUKE (6-1)
Son of Good Magic qualifies on the same speed ration angle as Desert Duke in the fifth race and trainer Brad Cox has a 15% ROI in graded stakes races (from a sample of 386 races). He’s on to use on the top and bottom of your vertical plays.

4-TRANSECT (30-1)

5-FIRST MISSION (3-1)
This Godolphin runner recorded a 96 PSF and 0 LSR in a maiden win last time. He also outworked his stablemate (Demolition Duke) on April 2.

6-DISARM (7-2)
Most accomplished entrant in the field earned a 97 PSF and 0 LSR in a runner-up performance in the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 25.

7-DENINGTON (20-1)
His speed and pace figures are a little light, but he’s not without hope of hitting the board.

8-EMPIRESTRIKESFAST (4-1)
Earned a race-best 102 PSF and recorded a -3 LSR in breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park on March 11. However, he’s going to need to expend more energy to be in the early mix in this spot. Given his outside post and skimpy morning-line odds, I’ll be playing against him on Saturday.

9-PRAIRIE HAWK (15-1)
Received a 95 PSF and 0 LSR after setting a leisurely pace on Jan. 13. That doesn’t seem likely here with speed both inside and outside of him, but tactics always play a part in the pace scenario. Just insist on a price.

10-CURLY LARRY AND MO (50-1)
He’s bred for the grass and has competed over that surface in four of his six lifetime starts. That said, he has enough early zip to set or closely press the pace, which is always dangerous.

11-ARABIAN LION (7-2)
This dude is fast and dons blinkers today, but distance questions abound—even more so given that Bob Baffert is the trainer, which means the son of Justify cannot run in the Kentucky Derby. I’ll take a stand against him at a short price.

MY WAGERS: EXACTA KEY BOX 3 with 2,5,6.

Author: DDS