It’s somewhat stunning that the Sacramento Kings (4-6), a team that was 30-52 last year, are favored against the Los Angeles Lakers (2-8), on the road, even with LeBron James not playing.
Interestingly, the Kings are 17-13 against L.A. since 2014, with a 10-5 record against the spread when playing at Staples Center (now Crypto.com Arena). In fact, the home team is just 10-20 ATS over the past eight seasons.
All that said, two things are making me back the Lakers tonight.
- Sacramento has been identified by my algorithms as a vulnerable favorite. It’s not a huge edge—historically, such teams win at a 45% rate—but it’s something.
- My report also sees value in the Lakers as a home underdog.
BET: L.A. LAKERS +4 ½ POINTS OR BETTER ****
My first official bet on the NHL was a total bust. I suggested a play on the Buffalo Sabres at +1 ½ on the puck line, and I’m convinced if the game had gone a few minutes longer, the Vegas Golden Knights would have won by two touchdowns and a field goal.
But like Charlie Sheen in rehab, I never quit.
BET: SAN JOSE +1 ½ GOALS AT -130 OR BETTER ****
Lastly, let’s take a look at tonight’s top college football play.
These two teams have met 10 times since 1997, with Fresno State (5-4) winning seven of those contests — five times by double digits. This year the spread is “only” 9 ½ points in favor of the Bulldogs, which seems about right based on the numbers that show these squads to be relatively equal.
Still, my computer algorithms see value in the money line, so that’s the way I’ll play it.
BET: FRESNO STATE -350 OR BETTER ON THE MONEY LINE ****
