I think it’s very important that we bettors remember that our goals and the goals of the participants in the sports we’re wagering on are typically very different. Yeah, we all want to win — most of the time — but is getting a “w” the most important consideration in a preseason game or in a Kentucky Derby prep?

No.

Likewise, when a trainer drops a horse in class, it is not always to claim an easy victory. Sometimes, it is a business decision — particularly when it involves a recent purchase.

For example, check out Buttie, the 7/5 morning line favorite in the second race at Golden Gate Fields on March 9, 2019:

Buttie was claimed for $20K on Dec. 29 and last ran in an allowance affair. Saturday’s race is a conditioned $8,000 claiming event. So, it’s little wonder why the 6-year-old mare has been assigned such a skimpy price — that’s quite a drop in class.

But is this thinking logical?

Again, no.

Put yourself in the owner’s shoes: Scott Herbertson, who just so happens to be Ari’s dad, shelled out twenty big ones for this California-bred daughter of Angus a little more than two months ago and, now, after getting none of that investment back on Jan. 20 (Buttie’s last start), he’s willing to let her go for a measly $8,000.

Even if she wins and collects the lion’s share of Saturday’s $13,000 purse — and maybe a few hundred extra bucks for being a California-bred — the elder Herbertson is still out a few grand at least.

Now, it should be noted that both Herbertson’s have had remarkable success — Ari sports a 28.7 percent career win rate as a trainer (he also owns some horses in partnership with his father) and Scott has a 28.3 percent lifetime success rate as an owner.

Typically, such high strike rates are attained in one of two ways:

1) By running horses for less than they are worth, i.e. facing inferior competition.

2) A good vet.

Given this, it’s quite possible that the Herbertsons were just looking for a cozy spot when they entered Buttie in Saturday’s race — but I’m not sold, especially at 7/5 odds.

No, I’ll be playing against the big favorite this weekend; ironically, with a horse once owned by Scott Herbertson — Skeeter Davis.

While I think Buttie has a better chance of visiting the winner’s circle — remember, we are looking for value when we bet, not the most probable winner — Skeeter Davis earned a +2 late speed ration last time and offers bettors a 3.7 percent Kelly advantage, according to my database studies.

Note: I realize doing articles like this before the example race has been run opens me up to look very foolish, but, win or lose, I think pre-race illustrations are so much more compelling than after-the-fact sermons, which invariably end up with the handicapper nailing the straight trifecta.