HORSE RACING PLAY OF THE DAY STATS
Races Bet: 2
Races Won: 1
Success Rate: 50.0%
Units Returned: 816.25
ROI: +308.1%

Note: Units returned and ROI based on 100-unit bets. To be considered a “win”, the race must’ve produced a positive return on investment.

Golden Gate Fields Race 4

Although the Race Rating is only 36 percent — below the 50 percent minimum that I like to see — this race is interesting to me due to three horses: 1-Fabriana, 2-Queenoftheroad and 6-Lady Beware.

Let’s start with the latter.

Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by William Antongeorgi, Lady Beware is dropping to the lowest class level of her career. After competing for a $20,000 tag last time, she’s eligible to be claimed for just $8,000 today. Now, in many cases, such a drastic move would be a huge positive, but I don’t think that’s the case here.

Yes, Hollendorfer has a 26 percent success rate with horses dropping 2+ class levels over the past year, but his ROI in such instances is -29 percent — considerably worse than his overall -22 percent ROI in 2018-19, despite the above-average win rate.

Then there’s the horse itself. The Irish daughter of Dragon Pulse has never won on the main track and, in fact, was beaten by a combined 33 ¾ lengths in her two off-the-turf tries — on today’s Tapeta surface in her last start and on the dirt at Churchill Downs on Nov. 18.

At 2-1 on the morning line, I think Lady Beware is very vulnerable.

The horse with the best chance to beat the morning line choice is Fabriana. While I suspect she has some physical issues, it’s hard to argue with her recent efforts. She’s got the best recent late speed rations in the race — by a mile — and is the only confirmed frontrunner in the field.

The other horse that I think has a huge shot and will likely be my key, depending on the final odds, is Queenoftheroad. Upon being claimed by little-known trainer Robert O. Allen, she was immediately entered in a route race — which she won going away, despite trouble in the stretch (see below).

Now here’s the crazy thing: The daughter of Leroidesanimaux has — surprise, surprise — a 1.80 Dosage Index and is 4-for-8 in races of a mile or greater. Why she has been competing in sprints for the majority of her career is beyond me. In fact, if you watch the video above, you’ll notice that Queenoftheroad appears to catch her second wind into the stretch — and she closes like a freight train when finally clear.

At 15-1 on the morning line (I can’t imagine her being anywhere near that price), I think the 7-year-old mare offers tremendous value. I’ll be using her on all my tickets.

Bet(s): 75% of wager to WIN & PLACE on 2. Remaining 25% on EXACTA 1-2 with 1-2-4-5.

Result: Queenoftheroad won, paying $38.20 to win and $12.00 to place. The exacta missed. Scratches: 4.

Bonus Play: Santa Anita Park Race 6

5-Sturdy One (2-1 morning line odds) has recorded six of her eight lifetime wins at Santa Anita Park and has placed (finished first or second) in 59 percent of her starts over the Arcadia, California oval.

She possesses a 13 percent Kelly advantage in this spot and need only work out a decent trip behind the likely pacesetters — 2-Christy Jackson (5-2), who removes the blinkers today, and 4-Naughty Sophie (4-1), who appears to be rounding back into form and could be a decent price given her last two dirt tries (both of which featured poor starts).

Bet(s): 75% of wager to WIN on 5. Remaining 25% on EXACTA KEY BOX 5 with 2-4.

Result: Sturdy One finished third.

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