Why You Shouldn’t Bet the Patriots to Win Super Bowl LIV

Over the past 10 years, a $100 bet on every opening future-book Super Bowl favorite, based on odds provided by Westgate Las Vegas Race & Sports SuperBook, would’ve cost $1,400 — there were ties in 2016, 2014 and 2011 — and would have returned $1,500, a 7.1 percent profit. The problem is the two favorites that won it all were both named the New England Patriots; coach Bill Belichick’s boys took home the Lombardi trophy this year (at 5-1 odds) and in 2016 (at odds of 8-1).

Prior to that, the last early favorite to capture the NFL championship was Indianapolis (at 6-1) in 2006 and, before that, San Francisco (at a paltry 2-1) in 1994.

So, as much as I admire what New England has accomplished upon the arrival of a man named Brady — since Sept. 30, 2001, when Tom Brady took over the quarterbacking duties from an injured Drew Bledsoe, the Patriots have accumulated a 220-65 regular-season record and have been to the playoffs 16 times, with a 30-10 ledger and a half-dozen Lombardi trophies to show for their efforts — I simply can’t make a future book bet on the defending champs.

Tom Brady (photo via YouTube)

And that’s true for Kansas City as well. The Chiefs and Patriots are 7-1 co-favorites to win next year’s big game, according to the latest odds from VegasInsider.com and, as one who is always seeking value, I just don’t see it with either team.

I am intrigued by the Los Angeles Rams at 10-1, but I’ve never been completely sold on Jared Goff at quarterback, especially after his horrendous Super Bowl showing, and Waldo would have been easier to find than Todd Gurley in the Rams’ last two playoff games.

After cruising to 1,251 yards, a league-leading 17 touchdowns and averaging 18.3 carries a game, Gurley rushed for 45 yards on 14 carries, with one score, in the NFC Championship and Super Bowl — which left many wondering if he was still dealing with knee issues that kept him out of the final two regular-season games.

Before Super Bowl LII, Los Angeles head coach Sean McVey said his All-Pro running back was “feeling good, a hundred percent” and added that he expected Gurley to “play a big role [against New England].” Obviously that last bit didn’t happen, but, at the time of this writing, McVey continues to insist that there was nothing amiss with his star runner.

The Rams still ooze talent even without Gurley in the lineup, but I’m not sure 10-1 is good enough if the 6-foot-1, 224-pounder isn’t completely healthy by next season.

I think the best future-book value might reside with the New Orleans Saints. Of course, we all know about the call that wasn’t, which cost New Orleans a win against the Rams in the NFC Championship game; it was so egregious that a New Jersey sportsbook even offered refunds to bettors who played the Saints.

How much of a hangover effect that will have on New Orleans next season remains to be seen, but I have a hard time digesting the Rams at 10-1 and the Saints at 15-1 to win the Super Bowl given the way the NFC title game transpired.

And speaking of a “hangover effect,” it looks like the Seattle Seahawks have finally recovered from Malcom Butler’s interception at the goal line in Super Bowl XLIX. In what many considered to be a rebuilding year, head coach Pete Caroll’s crew relied on the NFL’s leading rushing attack to power to a 10-6 record and a return to the playoffs after a one-year absence.

Granted, I’m a Seattle native and very biased, but I think the Seahawks could be poised for another Super Bowl run in 2019 and I definitely think they have a better chance than their 35-1 odds indicate. In addition to a strong running game, led by second-year pro Chris Carson, quarterback Russell Wilson had arguably his best year in the Emerald City, tossing a career-high 35 touchdowns and finishing the season with a lifetime-best 110.9 NFL Passer Rating, third in the league behind Drew Brees and MVP Patrick Mahomes.

Keep in mind that future bets of this nature are very challenging. A lot can happen between now and next January, so, whatever you decide to do, make sure the odds are in your favor — or at least not stacked against you.

Author: DDS