Of all the silly things that sports gamblers and horseplayers do, finding the “best” team or horse may be the silliest. One can determine that — with great accuracy, I might add — in a matter of seconds, simply by glancing at the odds.

Man o’ War and Secretariat are considered to be two of the greatest thoroughbreds to ever look through a bridle. Between them, they were favored in 41 of 42 starts — so, the betting public was clearly aware of their talents.

Yet, a $100 win bet on both of them in every lifetime start would have yielded a mere $861 — and that’s including cashing on Secretariat’s losing effort in the Wood (where he was coupled in the wagering with the winner, Angle Light).

No, being a winning sports bettor is all about finding value, not finding the most likely winner.

Enter Bet Ratings.

These numbers, which appear on the sports betting reports at Databasebetting.com, are not power ratings. They don’t necessarily measure the best team. Instead, they are designed to assess good betting opportunities.

Since the basketball season is presently underway, let’s look at some stats from the NBA and NCAA (from 2007-2018).

NBA
Bets: 26,738
Wins: 13,369
Rate: 50.0%
Return: -$1,336.90
ROI: -4.55%

NCAA
Bets: 64,852
Wins: 32,426
Rate: 50.0%
Return: -$3,241.50
ROI: -4.55%

Of course, these digits are precisely what one would expect from betting on both teams in every game against a standard -110 line. Now, let’s take a look at what happens when we restrict play to teams with a Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater.

NBA
Bets: 1,000
Wins: 526
Rate: 52.6%
Return: $4.60
ROI: +0.42%

NCAA
Bets: 6,708
Wins: 3,470
Rate: 51.7%
Return: -$91.80
ROI: -1.24%

As you can see, the NBA numbers immediately turn positive, while the college numbers are just slightly in the red. (This is not that surprising given the greater disparity of talent in college.)

However, take a look at what happens when we insist that the team’s fair odds (or line) meet or exceed the closing odds (or line).

NBA
Bets: 533
Wins: 290
Rate: 54.4%
Return: $22.70
ROI: +3.87%

NCAA
Bets: 3,673
Wins: 1,927
Rate: 52.5%
Return: $6.40
ROI: +0.16%

Even more encouraging is the fact that profits increase as the disparity between the team’s actual odds and its fair odds grows. Here are the stats on team’s with closing odds at least 50% greater than their fair odds.

NBA
Bets: 372
Wins: 205
Rate: 55.1%
Return: $21.30
ROI: +5.21%

NCAA
Bets: 2,945
Wins: 1,579
Rate: 53.6%
Return: $76.40
ROI: +2.36%

Now, the point here is not that one should only wager when the Bet Rating is equal to or greater than 2.00. While I do believe in establishing thresholds for performance figures — I’ve done this with my horse racing pace figures for years — the goal here is simply to illustrate how concentrating on the betting side of the equation can help reduce the vigorish or takeout and, in some cases, produce profits before one even considers the more traditional handicapping factors.