The last time I bet on Miami (4-4), they made a fool out of U and me, committing EIGHT turnovers in an upset loss to Duke. Yet, as the great philosopher David Coverdale once said, “Here I go again.”

Miami has an incredible 5.66 Bet Rating and a pretty good defense against the run — which is Florida State’s greatest strength (though the Seminoles are not bad passing the football either).

Interestingly, while this series has been pretty even over the years (Florida State holds a slight edge with a 14-12 SU record since 1997), the winning margin has exceeded today’s line 11 times (42.3%).

For this reason, I think a money line bet makes sense, though I understand those taking the 7 ½ points.

This great rivalry has been a bit one-sided, as the Falcons have won 15 of 24 previous matchups dating back to 1998. This year, the teams are nearly identical — nearly. Both squads have great rushing attacks, with Air Force (5-3) averaging 342.8 yards to lead the country and Army (3-4) ranking second with 334.9 rushing yards per game.

It’s on the other side of the ball where the differences begin to show, as the Black Knights have been terrible against the run, ranking 126th in the country by allowing 212.7 yards per game, 5.5 yards at a time. As far as the betting is concerned, the public is piling on Army, whereas the money is on Air Force. I’m conflicted here: my algorithms say to take Army +7, but the strength-versus-weakness concerns me. That said, I’ll follow the numbers.

The home team has dominated this series, compiling a 20-5 record over the past quarter-century. The key here, though, is that the Wolfpack’s defense—at least on paper—looks considerably better than the Demon Deacons’.

I think North Carolina State (6-2) can win outright over Wake Forest (6-2).

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