The Database Betting Horse Racing Reports were designed to be handicapping aids — not tip sheets, although historically profitable horses are identified with a horseshoe next to their name (more on that later).

Overall, the listed horses can be expected to win about 27 percent of the time and produce an ROI comparable to what one would achieve by betting on the post-time favorite (-17 percent).

However, the real power of these reports lies in the Race Rating and the Fair Odds. The Race Rating is a percentage score that measures the betting value of the race in question, based on the factors — all of which are performance-based — used to analyze it and the separation between contenders. Hence, a race with a preponderance of first-time starters will almost surely feature a low Race Rating, as performance metrics are simply not relevant in such instances.

But look at what happens to the numbers when one restricts their betting to horses with fair odds of less than 5-1 in events with a Race Rating of 50 percent or greater:

Number: 4,901
Wins: 1,906
Rate: 38.9%
$2 Net Return: $1.93
ROI: -3.28%

Though not profitable, notice that these plays have reduced the effective track takeout and breakage rate to about three percent. If we insist that the horses above are overlays (morning line odds greater than fair odds), the red ink turns black.

Number: 1,317
Wins: 430
Rate: 32.6%
$2 Net Return: $2.20
ROI: +9.92%

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