I think this year’s Kentucky Derby guide is the best I’ve ever produced. In these pages, you’ll find:
Derby Facts & Figures – A popular section that includes a myriad of unique and relevant stats pertaining to the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
What trait do 78% of Kentucky Derby winners since 1967 share? What single factor has produced an ROI of 122.5% since 1997? Find out the answers inside!
Final Fractions Theory – I expound on the Final Fractions Theory, which was conceived by Colonel Edward R. Bradley and popularized by Jennie Rees. Using more scientific, dynamic values for lengths, I find out who the fastest finishers among the Derby entrants are.
Discover which horses have a 1.39 impact value based on the final fractions of their last race, and which have a 0.50 IV based on the same criterion.
The Importance of Workouts – I examine how impactful a horse’s last workout is and whether or not it matters if it was at Churchill Downs or not†.
Learn to separate the workouts that have produced a 1-for-74 record in the Derby since 1997 from those that have led to huge profits.
Assessing the Derby Preps – An in-depth study of Kentucky Derby preps since 1992 yielded some interesting findings.
Which type of stakes races produces the greatest return on the first Saturday in May? The results may surprise you!
Figuring the Pace – This year’s guide contained three articles on the impact of the Kentucky Derby pace.
I analyze the pace in a variety of different ways and predict this year’s opening half-mile time.
Speed Ratings – An in-depth discussion of Brisnet speed figures and what they mean, with an emphasis on “the bounce.”
See the speed rating pattern that has produced zero Kentucky Derby winners (from 38 starters) since 1992. Observe the pattern that has produced a 54 percent ROI as well!
Know Your S.H.I.T. – The Simon Historical Investment Technique has produced 21 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners, good for a profit of $16,290 had you bet $100 win on each qualified selection.
This year, the top contender earned 210 points. Since 1992, horses with 170 points or more have worn the roses three times in nine attempts, producing a 586 percent ROI (the highest rating ever was Big Brown with 225 points).
Pace Profile Report – Each Kentucky Derby Guide contains my Pace Profile Report, which includes par speed figures and my speed rations for every (potential) Derby contender.
In the past 31 years, six horses (of 43) won the Kentucky Derby after recording an LSR of -5 or greater and an ESR of less than 0 in their final prep, producing profits across the board. What five potential Derby entrants qualify this year?
†Statistics from 1997-2022, excluding 2001, 2006, and 2007.
PLEASE include the email address you want the report sent to and allow up to 24 hours for delivery!
Please send to d_a_long@yahoo.com.
I just made the payment
Hi Derek, I totally forgot to add my email address to my order of your 2023 KD Guide. Looking forward to reviewing your stats.
PayPal transaction ID#:
2XK319665R963291J
I sent it to an email address that was on the order. Did you get it, Pam?
Hi Derek, no I did not receive it. Please try tomigrl22@gmail.com
Hi Derek, no I did not receive it. Please try tomigrl22@gmail.com
Sent.
Got it!! Thank you 😊
So sorry you had to wait so long! Have a great Derby weekend.
I just purchased your guide as well!
Please send to mhunt0909@yahoo.com
Sent.
I just purchased your guide!! Please send. I loved your commentary i just watched
Where is guide? Already paid. I send my email
Did you get it David? I sent it at 3:29 P.M. ET.
I don’t see how to pay for the Guide with a credit card. The site keeps asking for my password even though I don’t have a Paypal account.
Shoot. I’m sorry. I thought PayPal allowed credit cards. Did you try the “Pay with Debit or Credit Card” button? If so, and it didn’t work, try http://agameofskill.com/derek-simons-kentucky-derby-betting-guide-for-derby-149/
That’s not my site, but Rich Nilsen is a friend and he’s offering the guide as well.
Thanks, Rob. So sorry for your troubles.
I did try the credit card button. Also tried Rich’s site at your suggestion, but the only options it gave me (even after trying to download) were ways to get a paper copy in the mail, which doesn’t leave enough time.
Regardless, I’m glad to see you are still in business. I had lost track of where you were and was hoping you were okay.
I’m so sorry about that.
Hey Man, how’s it going? I bought your guide and made a payment this morning. Thanks.
5:50 AM? You are ready! LOL. I send it at 7ish. Let me know if you didn’t get it.
Hi Derek I haven’t received The Guide yet. My e-mail
wannibal44@gmail.com
Thank You,
David
I’m so sorry. I didn’t get a notification. I’ve been having some issues with my computer, but I didn’t see anything on my phone either. I just sent it and the Workout Report.
Fantastic post, I enjoyed reading it very much. Your points are right on target and the writing is very well crafted.