Minnesota won both meetings between these division rivals last year, and the Bears don’t appear to have improved much — at least on offense. Let’s be real: the Justin Fields experiment isn’t working. After a rough rookie season, Fields simply hasn’t progressed this year, as Chicago is averaging less than 100 yards passing a game, by far the worst in the league.
On the plus side, Chicago’s running game, paced by David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, has been a bright spot, and both teams have struggled defensively against the run.
Given this, I think the Bears can keep it close, especially given that 15 of the last 30 games in the series have been decided by seven points or less.
BET: CHICAGO + 7 ½ POINTS ***
On paper, this game screams Titans. They are the better team, having made the playoffs each of the last three years, and, according to various sources, over 70% of the money is coming in on Tennessee.
So, why is the game a pick ‘em?
I don’t know, but my algorithms point to the Commanders as the value bet, and who am I to argue?
BET: WASHINGTON TO WIN AT -105 OR BETTER ****
*Most money lines are offering a price superior to the -110 line.
Pro sports are often all about matchups, and I think this game is a great example.
Let’s start with the fact that Nick Chubb is probably the best running back in the NFL. He’s never averaged less than five yards a carry (the league average is typically between 4.3 to 4.4), and the Los Angeles defense has been yielding 5.4 yards per tote — second worst in the NFL behind Detroit (5.6).
Yeah, the Chargers have Herbert, but his opportunities may be limited if the Browns can control the ball — something they’ve done successfully all year. Cleveland has averaged nearly 36 minutes of possession time in their four games this year.
Los Angeles is a better team, but the matchups and my algorithms say Cleveland.
BET: CLEVELAND +1 ½ ***
The 49ers are allowing a league-low 11.5 points per game and 2.9 yards per rush. They are giving up just 161.3 yards passing per contest — second only to Buffalo.
In short, they are better than the Panthers.
That said, for a team that is nearly as bad offensively as it is good defensively, San Francisco is spotting Carolina a lot of points, especially given that the 49ers are on the road.
My algorithms give the Panthers a 59% chance of covering. It’s also interesting — although not particularly relevant — that Carolina is 16-5 ATS against San Francisco since 1995.
BET: CAROLINA +6 ½ ****
In another game featuring intriguing matchups, the Bengals travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens team with a big-play offense and an unusually poor defense.
Interestingly, after five consecutive losses to their division rivals, the Bengals have won the last two — handily. Since 2007, they are 18-11 against the boys from Baltimore.
After a slow start, quarterback Joe Burrow looked like his old self against a rejuvenated Miami team, while Lamar Jackson struggled against the Buffalo Bills too-rated pass defense.
I think the value here is with Cincinnati, and I’ll play them to win outright, as the winning margin in this series has matched or exceeded today’s point spread in 30 consecutive games over the past 15 years.
BET: CINCINNATI TO WIN AT +135 OR BETTER **
On paper, this is a mismatch of epic proportions. The Chiefs have annihilated the Raiders in their last two meetings, and the talent disparity between these teams is arguably greater this year than last.
Worse, Las Vegas’ running game, which has been a bright spot, figures to be neutralized by Kansas City’s superior rush defense.
Still, sports betting is not about finding the best team—that’s often obvious—it’s about finding value in the line.
BET: LAS VEGAS +7 ½ POINTS
