On the surface, it looks like last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) champ Goodnight Olive has lost a step. After running a series of 100+ par speed figures culminating with a 108 in her Breeders’ Cup win, the Chad Brown trainee has yet to find that form in 2023. In fact, she is one of just two horses (the other is Dr B) that have failed to meet the par in Saturday’s Bed O’ Roses Stakes (G2).

Although she was boxed in the entire length of the stretch in her last start, the -15 late speed ration (LSR) Goodnight Olive earned in that race was the worst of her career. Obviously, she could rebound big this weekend—she’s a three-time Grade I winner and the only Grade I winner in the field—but I’ll take a stand against her with frontrunner BEGUINE and super-sharp CARAMEL SWIRL.