The Database Betting NBA and NCAA Betting Reports were designed as handicapping aids — they are not tip sheets. However, certain numbers on the reports have proven to be meaningful and, thus, are highlighted.
For example, NBA teams with a Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater accumulated the following stats from 2007-2018:
NBA STATISTICS
Number: 1,049
Wins: 546
Rate: 52.0%
ROI: -0.63%
O/U Bet: 1,030
Over: 47.0%
ROI: -10.29%
Under: 53.0%
ROI: +1.20%
As underdogs, these teams are especially potent:
Number: 376
Wins: 208
Rate: 55.3%
ROI: +5.61%
O/U Bet: 369
Over: 43.6%
ROI: -16.70%
Under: 56.4%
ROI: +7.61%
NBA teams with Bet Ratings of 2.00 or greater also perform very well at home, generating the following digits from 1993-2017:
Number: 920
Wins: 497
Rate: 54.0%
ROI: +3.09%
A Fair Odds line of -200 is significant as well, especially when the team’s actual odds are greater than this. Since 2007, these overlays have posted the following returns:
Number: 186
Winners: 102
Rate: 54.8%
ROI: +4.69%
NCAA STATISTICS
College teams with a Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater (from 2007-2018) have performed as follows:
Number: 7,299
Wins: 3,798
Rate: 52.0%
ROI: -0.66%
O/U Bet: 7,202
Over: 48.1%
ROI: -8.20%
Under: 51.9%
ROI: -0.89%
Of course, one of the big differences between college sports and pro sports is the talent level and here’s where the Bet Ratings — because they are not performance figures or power ratings — are so powerful. They can be combined with qualitative metrics to achieve profitable results (this is true of pro sports too, but generally not to the same degree).
For instance, if we insist that a team’s accumulated point differential is zero or greater, we get the following stats on those with a Bet Rating of 2.00 or better:
Number: 4,827
Wins: 2,559
Rate: 53.0%
ROI: +1.21%
When these NCAA teams are underdogs, they perform especially well, as the following numbers show:
Number: 1,645
Wins: 914
Rate: 55.6%
ROI: +6.07%
Just like the in pro basketball, a fair odds line of -200 is significant too, having amassed the following digits since 2007:
Number: 2,771
Winners: 1,467
Rate: 52.9%
ROI: +1.07%
Now, some of you might think these statistics are underwhelming — and that’s a valid observation. But remember the idea here is merely to provide some simple and straightforward paths to profit (more will be forthcoming) and, more importantly, to level the wagering playing field.
As previously noted, because the Fair Odds and the Bet Ratings they are based on are wagering metrics, not ability ratings. Hence, they are ideally suited to deeper analysis by human handicappers.
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