The NFL postseason kicks off today, and I’ve been scouring my database looking for betting nuggets—and I think I’ve found some.
The first thing I discovered is that the NFL playoffs really highlight the dogmatic approach that so many sports bettors take; they are convinced the best team will win, period.
For example, since 1978, favorites (teams with a point spread of less than zero) have won 48.4% of the time during the regular season. In the playoffs, that win rate shoots to 52.3%. On the surface, this seems to indicate that bettors are right to concentrate on the best teams. However, when you dig a little deeper, you find a fundamental misunderstanding of the probabilities at work (as numerous studies on betting have suggested).
To begin with, the average margin of victory is a point higher in the playoffs than in the regular season, and the point spread is a half-point lower/higher (depending on whether you bet the favorite or underdog). But the chance of an upset—an outright win by the underdog—is much better in the postseason.
REGULAR SEASON
Underdog by ½-point or more
Home team win rate: 34.6%
ROI: -3.83%
Visiting team win rate: 32.1%
ROI: -3.53%
POSTSEASON
Underdog by ½-point or more
Home team win rate: 44.0%
ROI: +13.94%
Visiting team win rate: 35.7%
ROI: +9.63%
So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at the games this weekend, starting with the Seattle Seahawks (9-8) facing the rejuvenated San Francisco 49’ers (13-4).
On the surface, this looks like a total mismatch. Since the 49’ers acquired Christian McCaffrey in a trade with Carolina on Oct. 23, they have improved in every major offensive metric. Their average rushing yardage per game is up from 124.0 pre-trade to 146.9 post-trade — an improvement of 18.5%. Additionally, total yardage is up 16.0%, and points per game are up a whopping 46.6%!
And it’s not just McCaffrey.
Rookie quarterback—Mr. Irrelevant—Brock Purdy has been a true find, posting numbers even better than injured starter Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, Purdy’s official NFL passer rating of 107.3 is the best in the NFL, and his QBR ranks fifth behind Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts. Given that three of those guys are strong candidates for league MVP, this speaks volumes for Purdy’s first season in the NFL.
On the betting side, though, things get more muddled.
Earlier I discussed how well underdogs have done in the NFL playoffs. That’s a plus for Seattle. The Seahawks also own this series in recent years, with a 20-10 straight-up record and an identical record against the spread since October 2008. Granted, many of those games featured Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” defense, whereas this year’s unit is more like the “Legion of Gloom.” While San Francisco ranks first in fewest points against, Seattle ranks 25th — and the Seahawks are particularly poor defending the run, allowing enemy runners to average 4.9 yards per carry.
Another plus for the Seahawks is that they’ve already lost to the 49’ers twice this season. Now, it’s a myth that sweeping a team in the regular season and playoffs is a rarity — it has actually happened 14 times in 24 games since the NFL-AFL merger. But, again, we’re talking about betting here. Even though the home team is 12-6 when attempting to sweep an opponent in the playoffs, every one of those teams was favored (most by large margins).
Home Playoff Teams Trying to Win Third Game Against Opponent
| Year | Home | Road | Game 1 | Game 2 | Playoffs | Spread | ML* |
| 1982 | Dolphins | Jets | W 45-28 | W 20-19 | W 14-0 | -1 | |
| 1986 | Giants | Redskins | W 27-20 | W 24-14 | W 17-0 | -7 | |
| 1989 | Oilers | Steelers | W 27-0 | W 23-16 | L 26-23 | -7 | 240 |
| 1991 | Chiefs | Raiders | W 24-21 | W 27-21 | W 10-6 | -5 | |
| 1993 | Raiders | Broncos | W 23-20 | W 33-30 | W 42-24 | -2 | |
| 1994 | Vikings | Bears | W 42-14 | W 33-27 | L 35-18 | -6 | 200 |
| 1994 | Steelers | Browns | W 17-10 | W 17-7 | W 29-9 | -3.5 | |
| 1997 | Packers | Buccaneers | W 21-16 | W 17-6 | W 21-7 | -13 | |
| 1997 | Patriots | Dolphins | W 27-24 | W 14-12 | W 17-3 | -5 | |
| 1998 | Cowboys | Cardinals | W 38-10 | W 35-28 | L 20-7 | -7 | 240 |
| 2000 | Giants | Eagles | W 33-18 | W 24-7 | W 20-10 | -4.5 | |
| 2002 | Steelers | Browns | W 16-13 | W 23-20 | W 36-33 | -8 | |
| 2004 | Packers | Vikings | W 34-31 | W 34-31 | L 31-17 | -6 | 200 |
| 2007 | Cowboys | Giants | W 45-35 | W 31-20 | L 21-17 | -7 | 240 |
| 2008 | Steelers | Ravens | W 23-20 | W 13-9 | W 23-14 | -6 | |
| 2009 | Cowboys | Eagles | W 20-16 | W 24-0 | W 34-14 | -3.5 | |
| 2017 | Saints | Panthers | W 34-13 | W 31-21 | W 31-26 | -6.5 | |
| 2020 | Saints | Buccaneers | W 34-23 | W 38-3 | L 20-30 | -3 | 130 |
Once more, we find that betting the underdog in these instances makes sense — 36.1 cents for each wagered dollar, to be exact.
So, if you’re a San Francisco fan, rest assured you have about a 67% chance of advancing to the next round, but if you’re a bettor, I suggest taking the Seahawks at +390 (the current price at most venues) on the money line.
Other Plays
- Jacksonville +2 ½ points or better
- Minnesota -3 points or better
- Baltimore +345 or better on the money line
- Miami @ Buffalo OVER 43.5 points or less
- Tampa Bay +2 ½ points (-105) or better
