An in-depth look at three of today’s best college football betting opportunities, as well as other top plays.

This game boils down to the quarterback position, which is not that unusual in either college or pro football these days. This game is different, though, in that it is possible that backups will be piloting both teams.

For the Wolfpack, it’s not as bad as MJ Morris has proven to be a pleasant surprise. The freshman quarterback has completed 60.5% of his passes—just a shade below the injured Devin Leary—and his quarterback rating is actually greater than Leary’s. However, this will be Morris’ first road game and, if history is any guide, that could spell trouble.

Unless your name is Caleb Williams, who is a Heisman favorite in this, his second year, most freshman QBs are better at home than on the road.

Year	Name	Passer Rating
2021	SETH HENIGAN (MISSOURI)	-8%
2022	CALEB WILLIAMS (OKLAHOMA)	4%
2022	GAVIN FRAKES (NEW MEXICO STATE)	-62%
AVERAGE		-22.0%

On the other side of the ball is where the real question mark is, though. Louisville starter Malik Cunningham hurt his shoulder in the Cardinal’s loss to Clemson last week, leaving his status up in the air for Saturday’s game. If he can’t go, Louisville will be guided by junior Brock Domann, who has completed just 51.6% of his 77 throws this season—with two touchdowns and four interceptions.

Worse, Louisville might not be able to take the pressure off him on the ground as the Wolfpack rank No. 9 in the country against the run, allowing just 93.7 yards rushing per game.

For this reason, I like North Carolina State +4. But this game is risky, as the line is sure to move for or against you as soon as Cunningham’s status is known.

BET: NORTH CAROLINA STATE +4 POINTS OR BETTER ***

On paper, this game looks like a walkover for Clemson (9-1), the ninth-ranked team in the country. Just like the North Carolina State-Louisville matchup, the issues for Miami (5-5) begin at quarterback, where head coach Mario Cristobal has stayed mum on who will start — freshman Jacurri Brown or sophomore Tyler Van Dyke.

Van Dyke has been hampered by an apparent shoulder injury, causing him to miss two of the last three games and much of the contest versus Florida State on Nov. 5.

There are problems regardless of what Cristobal decides.

Brown is a true freshman and is a bigger threat—at least at this point in his career—to run than to pass. The four-star prospect is averaging less than 10 yards per pass completion and 4.9 yards per rush (remember sack yardage is counted in the rushing stats for quarterbacks in college football). Defensively, the Tigers have allowed just 3.7 yards per carry this season, so it could be tough for Miami to move the football.

Van Dyke, on the other hand, is a better passer, but, as we discussed earlier in regard to freshman QBs, he is much better playing at home than on the road and has a completion rate barely above 50% against top-25 opponents.

The betting stats are no better. Not only am I personally 0-2 when picking Miami to cover this year, but the Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS against Clemson since 2004. In their most recent meeting, on Oct. 10, 2020, the Tigers romped 42-17 as 14-point home favorites.

Given all these negative stats, it’s probably clear who I’m playing — Miami! Personally, I don’t like this matchup, but the Hurricanes do have a 3.54 Bet Rating and a positive point differential. Such teams have covered about 56% of the time when the spread is more than two touchdowns.

BET: MIAMI +19 ½ POINTS OR BETTER ***

On the surface, most of the betting angles favor Temple. The Owls are 7-4 ATS against the Bearcats since 2002. They are 2-1 when getting today’s spread of 16 ½ points or more and 4-0 ATS in their last four games (by contrast, Cincinnati has failed to cover for five games in a row).

However, Cincinnati has a massive edge based on traditional statistics, as well as the stats I use to assess betting value. Road favorites with a Bet Rating of 3.00 or greater (Cincinnati has a 4.02 Bet Rating) are 125-42 (74.9%) SU since 1978—good for a 3.4% return on the money line. When favored by two touchdowns or more, they are 41-1 and the ROI jumps to 17.5%!

BET: CINCINNATI -960 OR BETTER ON THE MONEY LINE
AND/OR CINCINNATI -16 1/2 POINTS OR BETTER ****

Other Plays

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