At first glance, Storm Born appears to be a reasonable favorite in the first race at Hawthorne today, but 3-5 is way too low and raises the possibility of a negative show pool, so let’s take a closer look at this race, beginning with the big favorite:
1-STORM BORN (3-5) is the second foal from He’s Had Enough-Storm Love. The mare has produced OK runners, including Storm Slew, who won 11 of 70 career races — all on a dirt surface (typically routing) — from 2008 to 2013. The problem I have is that, while all his races have been decent, there is nothing to suggest that Storm Born lays over this field as one would expect from a horse that’s 3-5 on the morning line. Worse, his early speed—such a key in maiden claiming affairs—is likely to have been dulled from the two turf events he competed in recently (although the projected early speed ration in this race is just a -5).
2-GRAND FESTIVAL (30-1) Sold at auction for $60K but has finished last in each of his past two races, both at odds of over 100-1.
3-ANUNKA (20-1) is somewhat intriguing as she has a bit of early zip and stretches out today. On the negative side, the one time she got an early lead, in a six-furlong affair at FanDuel (seriously?) Racetrack, she still faded badly, albeit against better.
4-AWESOME WILLY (3-1) may offer some value in this spot. To begin with, the 67 Brisnet speed figure he earned in his last race is the best in the field— a fact that may be obscured by Awesome Willy’s double-digit loss in that race. The fact that he ran wide the entire race adds to the appeal and bolsters my confidence that today’s added distance will pose no issues. Strong contender.
5-MICHAEL GEORGE (20-1), like Grand Festival, has finished last in each of his past two starts, although he did face much better last time. Still, there’s not much to recommend.
6-CHARLIE’S BEACH (15-1) is among the most experienced runners in the field with six starts, and his full sister, Sassy Miss Margie, has won three races, including two route affairs. The problem is this guy is simply not very fast.
7-JACKPOT BOY (20-1) looks OK if one has low standards for “OK” and is willing to overlook that last race (which was on a different surface). Jackpot Boy’s dam has produced two other winners, including Spirit Animal, who has banked over $200K and appeared in three graded stakes.
8-I’M YOUR VALENTINE (8-1) hails from a dam that has been dynamite. All of her eligible progeny have raced, all but this guy have won, and three have won multiple times, with Word Of Truth visiting the winner’s circle eight times in 15 starts. He gets Lasix for the first time today and tries a distance he is bred to relish. Another strong contender.
BET: SHOW ON 4,7,8 IF STORM BORN CONTROLS AT LEAST 75% OF THE SHOW POOL & EXACTA 4,7,8 with 1,4,7,8.
