For many years, I’ve known that my speed rations, which measure a horse’s energy distribution, both early and late, work at certain thresholds. However, I have had difficulty finding consistency with them for two reasons:
- The win rate varies greatly, so I am subject to long losing streaks — which I hate.
- The payoffs vary too. Profits typically come from the higher prices, but, of course, the higher prices don’t win as much as the lower prices (see point 1).
Recently, I tried computing pace figures for harness racing and witnessed the same phenomenon. So, rather than continue fighting to find the consistency I crave, I took a different tact: I bet all the overlays with the knowledge that this would undoubtedly result in a lower win rate and even longer losing streaks but that the end result would be positive.
I also used the conditional wagering feature, so I didn’t have to watch the tote in every race.
Now, if you know harness racing, you understand that post time is never adhered to, making conditional wagering very tricky. However, my goal was to eliminate the underlays, and it worked fairly well in that regard, even if it meant my bet at “0 minutes to post” was actually made six minutes prior to the start of the race.
I missed my first 21 races in a row, but the final results were encouraging:
Betting Stats (Nov. 7-14, 2022)
Conditional Wagers Placed: 85
Conditional Wagers Made: 38 (45%)
Winners: 4 (10.5%)
$2 Return: $151.60
ROI: +99.47%
What I find intriguing here is the number of plays. It appears possible that I can generate enough bets to iron out the streakiness. Only time will tell.
