Yesterday was a bit frustrating for two reasons:
- By overriding my algorithm in the Colorado-Arizona State matchup, I turned a 7-2 week in college football to 6-3.
- Even though I’ve advised people to bet my NBA and NHL plays at their own risk, as I continue testing, to say that testing has gone poorly is like observing the surface of the sun is “hot.”
I have decided that the best way to tackle the NBA might be to look for negative betting situations because nothing else has worked, as my posted NBA plays are 3-8. I am more confident about the NHL, as I have discovered that concentrating on overlays seems to work. Plus, my reports had a computation error that led to the 5-8 performance thus far (if you look at the fair odds on yesterday’s reports, you’ll see what I mean).
All that said, if you played EVERY game I posted, regardless of my dire warnings, you’d have a 57% win rate from 107 plays — good for a 10.17% ROI. This is because the football algorithms have been dynamite. I’m 35-19 (64.8%) in college football (+25.07% ROI) and 13-8 (61.9%) in the NFL (+19.76% ROI).
I’m working feverishly on Breeders’ Cup stuff, so I didn’t do any in-depth write-ups today, but there are several intriguing games on tap, including a bunch of money line plays:
Carolina (2-5) at Atlanta (3-4)
Very intriguing matchup here as my algorithms have identified the Atlanta Falcons as a weak favorite and Carolina as a money line play.
BET: CAROLINA +170 OR BETTER ON THE MONEY LINE **
Miami (4-3) at Detroit (1-5)
My new hometown team looks to get back to the form that saw it look like a legitimate threat in the AFC. Detroit looks to break a three-game losing streak.
BET: MIAMI -190 OR BETTER ON THE MONEY LINE **
Arizona (3-4) at Minnesota (5-1)
On their best day, the Cardinals can beat anybody—but those days are limited.
BET: MINNESOTA -190 OR BETTER ON THE MONEY LINE ****
Tennessee (4-2) at Houston (1-4-1)
Houston is a vulnerable favorite, making the injury-riddled Titans the play.
BET: TENNESSEE -105 OR BETTER ON THE MONEY LINE ***
San Francisco (3-4) at L.A. Rams (3-3)
The Rams will look to reverse a 24-9 loss to the 49ers on Oct. 3.
BET: L.A. RAMS -105 OR BETTER ON THE MONEY LINE ****
Green Bay (3-4) at Buffalo (5-1)
Another very intriguing game, as Green Bay badly needs the win, and my algorithms — which do not consider such things — see value in the line.
BET: GREEN BAY +10 ½ POINTS OR BETTER ****
Click HERE for today’s NFL Betting Report.
