I’ve talked a lot about consistency in betting and the advantage of broad metrics that work (easier said than done). For example, if you have an algorithm that, based on your studies, only works on the first day of June when there is a full moon, chances are it is not a winning method, but a (waste) product of back-testing.
When I created my Bet Ratings, I wanted them to work on every sport. Obviously, I expect some discrepancies and understand, just by the mechanics involved, that there will be slight differences based on the primary betting offered (point spread or money line) and the level of competition (college or pro).
I think I accomplished that, which is why I have confidence in the angles I create under these ratings.
Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater
| League | Bets | Wins | Rate | ROI |
| NFL | 918 | 517 | 56.3% | 7.52% |
| NBA | 479 | 262 | 54.7% | 4.42% |
| NCAAF | 3,699 | 1,928 | 52.1% | -0.49% |
| NCAAB | 4,482 | 2,361 | 52.7% | 0.57% |
You’ll notice that a Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater in point spread betting produces profits in both the pro leagues and significantly cuts the losses in the two college sports. (With amateur sports I’ve found that you must build in some type of ability component, whereas this is helpful but not necessary with the pros.)
With all this in mind, let’s take a look at the top plays for Thursday, Oct. 27, 2022:
