Statistically, Army (2-4) looks best. Despite their poor record, the Black Knights are a pretty good team on offense, averaging 316.8 yards rushing per game, 5.9 yards at a time. Even throwing the ball, Army has been efficient if not prolific, averaging 10.83 yards per pass attempt — third in the country among major schools, behind Tennessee and Air Force.
Army possesses a 3.46 Bet Rating and is a 6 ½-point favorite against Louisiana Monroe (2-5), but I think the value here is on the “under.” In their past 30 games, the Black Knights have exceeded today’s total of 56 points just nine times. Given their desire to run first and only pass when necessary, I think Army will dominate the time of possession and keep the score relatively low.
BET: UNDER 56 POINTS ****
On paper, Miami (3-3) looks dominant. Not only do the Hurricanes have a potent passing attack, averaging 320 yards per game, but they are also very good defensively against the run — which is the Blue Devils’ strength.
Miami is allowing just 96.7 yards rushing per game and 3.0 yards per carry. Against Duke (4-3), they are 10-7 ATS since 2005 and have outscored the Blue Devils by an average of 15.4 points per game during that time.
BET: MIAMI -10 POINTS ****
Pittsburgh (4-2) has won six of the past seven meetings between these teams and could do so again. The Panthers aren’t a great team, but they’re pretty good — and they match up particularly well against the Cardinals (3-3), who have just a ho-hum defense.
In addition, Pittsburgh enters today’s contest after a bye week — a scenario that has produced a 14-3-1 ATS record in the Panthers’ past 18 games.
BET: PITTSBURGH +2 ½ POINTS ****
While the public is enthusiastically betting the “over” in this contest, my algorithms suggest that the “under” has value. Since 1978, teams with a Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater and fair odds of 100 or higher have been under the total 57.7% of the time, good for an 11.22% ROI.
The fact that this game features a relatively high over/under total of 58 just adds support for the bet.
BET: UNDER 58 POINTS ***
Even though my algorithms favor the “under” in this game, I don’t like the matchups, as each team’s strength on offense is the other team’s weakness on defense. Worse, in the previous seven meetings between these two teams since 2015, the “over” is 6-1.
My algorithms gave this game four stars, but my own analysis, coupled with the fact the O/U line has fallen by three points since the open compels me to reduce this to a three-star play (and I’m not comfortable with that either).
BET: UNDER 50 ½ POINTS ***
It appears the “smart money” is on James Madison (5-1) — so, of course, I’m taking Marshall (3-3). Coach Matthew McConaughey has the Thundering Herd riding high after a highly emotional and inspirational speech, and I think Marshall’s defense can keep it close.
The Thundering Heard’s defense ranks second against the run, behind — quick, guess who — James Madison, and 13th in total yards allowed (the Dukes rank 11th).
I suspect yards will be hard to come by and the Thundering Heard will show people they are Marshall.
BET: MARSHALL +12 ½ POINTS ***
Another interesting database-driven play here, as my algorithms favor the “under” despite a ridiculously light total of 41 points — the lowest in the series dating back to 2012.
Once again, I’m handicapped by the fact that the lines have changed significantly since I first ran my report on this game. Still, history says that similar matchups have seen the “under” cash 57.1% of the time.
BET: UNDER 41 POINTS ****
Rice (3-3) is 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS against Louisiana Tech (2-4) since 2014, but, this year, the Bulldogs are bad on both offense and defense — and not the “bad” of the 1980s, either.
Still, it’s hard to fathom the Owls giving points on the road. My algorithms tab Rice as a vulnerable favorite, and also favors the “over.”
BET: LOUISIANA TECH +3 POINTS **
Despite the success LSU (5-2) has had in recent years, including an undefeated championship season in 2019, the Tigers are just 9-15 ATS against Ole Miss since 1997.
This year, the undefeated Rebels (7-0) are averaging 502.9 yards a game on offense (ranked 14th in the country) and have scored five touchdowns or more in five games. The Rebels rank third in the country in rushing offense and have a decent defense to boot.
LSU, on the other hand, has been resurgent under new coach Brian Kelly, following two subpar seasons that netted the Tigers just 11 wins against 12 losses.
I expect this game to be a thriller, with Ole Miss eking out a narrow victory.
BET: MISSISSIPPI + 1 ½ POINTS ***
Although they are just 2-4 ATS against Cincinnati (5-1) since 2013 and got blown out in each of their last two meetings in 2021 and 2020, I think SMU has a decent shot to win outright today. After winning the starting job for new coach Rhett Lashlee, senior quarterback Tanner Mordecai has picked up where he left off last year, as the Mustangs rank fourth in the country with 351.8 yards passing per game.
That said, No. 19 Cincinnati has an outstanding defensive unit that is sure to test SMU’s resolve. In fact, the last time these squads met, Mordecai completed just 15 of 26 passes for 66 yards in a Bearcat beatdown.
Still, Cincinnati is favored by only three points for a reason. I give SMU a 50-50 shot of winning outright.
BET: SMU +140 MONEY LINE ***
Other Top Games to Bet
- Boise State +1 ½ ***
- San Diego State at Nevada UNDER 36 points ****
Low-Rated Games of Interest
- Virginia +3 ½ *
- Boston College +21 *
- Colorado +23 ½ *
- Vanderbilt +14 *
