I’ve revamped my grading system because I need to find a reliable way of distinguishing between good bets, bad bets, and great bets. This is especially true as the National Hockey League season gets underway. While I have been profitable with my NHL picks in the past, the average pool is 103.5%. That might not seem like a big deal, but it is a whole percentage point greater than the average MLB pool.

Given this, I’m going to start recording NHL games in a separate category, as I rarely expect the 4-star plays that are fairly commonplace in MLB, NFL, and NCAAF contests. Instead, it is a game—at least on the betting side—punctuated by higher odds and a lower win rate.

Numerous studies have documented how much the sports betting public loves to bet favorites, and with the tighter odds so often seen in hockey, even more of my plays than usual are on underdogs.

Follow along at your own risk!

The defending Stanley Cup champs are 11-3 at home against Winnipeg since 2014 and, overall, have won 16 of the last 30. That said, the Jets look like a slight overlay in this spot, and, hey, they beat the Avalanche once last year, albeit at home. I’m expecting a lot of goals, so I think the best way to bet on Winnipeg is on the money line.

BET: WINNIPEG +190 ON MONEY LINE **

This is another matchup that, on paper, looks like a walkover for the home team. The Panthers are 10-5 at home against Philadelphia since 2012—good for a 16.5% ROI—and have triumphed in each of the last three meetings.

Here, though, the odds truly look out of whack as the Flyers are a massive +285 underdog, despite entering the game 3-0 and playing pretty good hockey. In another low-rated game, I’ll take Philadelphia.

BET: PHILADELPHIA +285 **