After a poor 3-7 ledger last week, I’ve won seven of nine, including four of the five college football plays I gave out yesterday (how Hawaii-Nevada didn’t go over 49 ½ points after putting up 34 by halftime, I’ll never know).
Hopefully, today’s NFL slate will be just as kind as it features my first five-star play — on an unlikely team. Here is my analysis of the best NFL games this weekend:
Baltimore (3-2) has won and covered the spread in five of their last seven games against New York (4-1). However, both these teams share a weakness I think could have a huge impact on today’s game — they can’t stop the run (at least thus far).
The Ravens are currently allowing 108 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry, while the Giants are yielding 131.6 yards per game, also at 5.0 yards a pop.
This is an advantage for New York, which has the inferior quarterback and, thus, could really use a big game from Saquon Barkley, who is having his best year as a pro, averaging 106.6 rushing yards per game — the most since his rookie year in 2018.
If the Giants can control the ball on the ground, they can keep the game close.
BET: N.Y. GIANTS + 5 ½ POINTS ****
The Panthers recently fired their head coach, Matt Ruhle, after a 1-4 start. Ruhle was 11-27 over 2 ½ seasons, which is unacceptable. Any team led by Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and now P.J. Walker should be winning 16-17 games a season, right?
Ruhle’s replacement is Steve Wilks, who has an 8-19 coaching record in college and the pros—but he’s never had Darnold, Mayfield, or Walker guiding his teams.
In addition to the coaching change, rumors persist that star running back Christian McCaffrey is on the trading block. After a breakout year in his second NFL season, McCaffrey’s production has waned, albeit due mostly to injuries.
So, after painting this bleak picture of the Panthers, who do I like in today’s game? Carolina, of course!
This is solely due to the 10-point spread.
Over the past 40+ years, road teams getting more than a touchdown cover 51.1% of the time. When that team has a Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater (the Panthers enter today’s contest with a 2.24 figure), the win rate shoots to 57.8%.
Plus, the Rams (2-3) have problems of their own. Their running game is on life support, averaging a league-low 62.4 yards per game, which has forced Stafford into more obvious passing situations, where he often struggles. His seven picks leads the NFL.
BET: CAROLINA +10 POINTS ****
This is what pro football is all about.
I don’t think it’s controversial to say that Josh Allen, who leads the NFL in passing yardage, and Patrick Mahomes, who tops the league in touchdown passes, are the best two quarterbacks in the National Football League, playing for, arguably, the two best teams.
Buffalo (4-1) added perennial All-Pro linebacker Von Miller to the fold, and the Bills’ defense appears better than ever, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush attempt and 5.5 yards per pass attempt. It will be tested by a Kansas City (4-1) offense averaging a league-leading 31.8 points per game.
Since 1982, the Bills are 15-11 ATS against the Chiefs, although the Chiefs have covered in six of the last eight meetings.
However, the key here is that Kansas City is a home underdog. Forget about the “revenge” nonsense you’ll hear bandied about by football fans and experts, it’s the numbers that matter, and the historical value is with the Chiefs, who have a 50-50 shot of winning outright.
BET: KANSAS CITY +125 ON MONEY LINE ***
This is, by far, the most intriguing game—college or pro—I’ve seen this year.
Denver (2-3) has been awful, as its new starting quarterback, Russell Wilson, has struggled in the early going. The Broncos traded for Wilson in mid-March — and he wasn’t cheap. Denver got Wilson and a fourth-round pick from Seattle in exchange for tight end Noah Fant, quarterback Drew Lock, and defensive end Shelby Harris, along with 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, 2022 and 2023 second-round picks, and a 2022 fifth-round pick.
All of that for a guy who has led Denver to two wins in five outings while averaging 15 points per game — second-worst in the NFL (Indianapolis, which beat Denver 12-9 in a forgettable Thursday night game, is averaging 13.8 PPG).
Meanwhile, the Chargers (3-2) seem to have put their early-season woes behind them. After starting 1-2 and getting blown out by Jacksonville in week three, Los Angeles has won two in a row.
But here’s the intriguing part: Not only do my algorithms tab the Chargers as a weak favorite with about a 40% chance of covering the spread, but they also point to Denver as a value play. Teams with fair odds of less than -200 (Denver has -327 fair odds) have a 63.2% win rate against teams classified as a “weak favorite” since 1978.
All this leads me to believe that Wilson will break out of his stupor, and the Denver offense will get untracked. I also wouldn’t be surprised if this game goes over the total of 45 ½ points.
BET: DENVER +4 ½ POINTS *****
