TEXAS (3-2) AT OKLAHOMA (3-2)
For years, this was a marquee matchup. In fact, these two teams rank third and fourth in bowl game appearances with 57 and 55, respectively, and, together, have turned out 94 first-round NFL draft picks.
Interestingly, while Oklahoma hasn’t lost more than two games since 2014, Texas hasn’t lost fewer than two games since 2009 — yet the Longhorns are favored by over a touchdown.
Statistically speaking, there’s cause for concern among Sooners fans. The offense, led by UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, appears solid, averaging 37 points a game, including 220.8 yards per game on the ground. The Oklahoma defense, however, is a different story, yielding an average of 423 yards per game.
Texas, on the other hand, has been great at shutting down enemy runners, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.
Here’s the thing, though: although the Longhorns are 14-11 ATS against the Sooners since 1997, they have covered today’s line just six times in those 26 games, and 12 of those contests were decided by eight points or less.
BET: OKLAHOMA +8 ****
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (3-2) AT GEORGIA STATE (1-4)
This is a very interesting game from a betting standpoint in that the play looks obvious, which always makes me nervous — “obvious” in betting typically means dinner at the Dollar Store later.
That said, my algorithms point to these teams scoring less than the 67.5 points offered — and history agrees with me. In eight prior meetings dating back to 2014, the Eagles and Panthers have combined to score more than 54 points exactly once.
BET: UNDER 67 ½ POINTS ****
CONNECTICUT (2-4) AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (2-2)
This is the first meeting between these two teams, and both look terrible. With two victories, the Huskies have already equaled their win total from 2019, when they posted a 2-10 record (they were 1-11 in both 2018 and 2021 and didn’t play in 2020, which was arguably their best year — I kid, I kid).
It’s a similar situation for Florida International, which is 1-16 over the past two seasons.
Both teams are anemic on offense and worse on defense, specifically against the pass. Given this, I favor the Golden Panthers on the premise that their quarterback, sophomore Grayson James, appears better able to take advantage of this than his counterpart, freshman Zion Turner.
BET: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +5 ½ POINTS ****
HAWAII (1-4) AT SAN DIEGO STATE (2-3)
Unlike the Georgia Southern-Georgia State game, the bet here doesn’t seem obvious—and I don’t feel any better about it.
The Aztecs are 22 ½- to 23 ½-point favorites at most books and possess a dominant 3.16 Bet Rating in this contest, but their offense has been terrible and their defense so-so.
Surely the Rainbow Warriors can help rectify the former, but my algorithms are pointing to the “under” in this game—and I think that will be entirely dependent on how porous Hawaii’s defense proves to be.
BET: UNDER 48 ½ POINTS ****
