The Breeders’ Cup, a two-day event showcasing the world’s finest thoroughbred racehorses, starts today. Here are some pointers to help you make some money this weekend.
To start with, understand that beating the Breeders’ Cup is all about finding value. Over the past 20 years, the average BC winner has paid a shade over $21.60 — that’s nearly 10-1 odds. During that period, odds-on choices (horses going to post at less than even money) have won just 40% of the time and produced a loss of nearly 31 cents on every dollar wagered. So, it’s not just about finding winners — it’s about finding winners that pay!
1) Since 2001, a $100 win bet on every horse* listed at 20-1 or greater on the morning line would have returned a profit of $22,885.
Horses listed at 20-1 or greater on the morning line*
| Horse | Race |
| RUN CURTIS RUN | Juvenile Turf Sprint |
| SUMTER | Juvenile Turf Sprint |
| THUNDER LOVE | Juvenile Turf Sprint |
| VERTIGINOUS | Juvenile Turf Sprint |
| DESERT DAWN | Juvenile Fillies |
| HELENS WELL | Juvenile Fillies Turf |
| SAIL BY | Juvenile Fillies Turf |
| AMERICAN SANCTUARY | Juvenile |
| DOUBLE THUNDER | Juvenile |
| GIANT GAME | Juvenile |
| OVIATT CLASS | Juvenile |
| TOUGH TO TAME | Juvenile |
| CREDIBILITY | Juvenile Turf |
| DETROIT CITY | Juvenile Turf |
| GREAT MAX | Juvenile Turf |
| READY TO PURRFORM | Juvenile Turf |
| STOLEN BASE | Juvenile Turf |
| PROUD EMMA | Filly & Mare Sprint |
| BEER CAN MAN | Turf Sprint |
| BOMBARD | Turf Sprint |
| CARAVEL | Turf Sprint |
| CHAOS THEORY | Turf Sprint |
| CHARMAINE’S MIA | Turf Sprint |
| COMMANDER | Turf Sprint |
| HOLLYWOOD TALENT | Turf Sprint |
| JASPER PRINCE | Dirt Mile |
| RESTRAINEDVENGENCE | Dirt Mile |
| DOGTAG | Filly & Mare Turf |
| OCEAN ROAD | Filly & Mare Turf |
| QUEEN SUPREME | Filly & Mare Turf |
| LEXITONIAN | Sprint |
| QUEEN SUPREME | Mile |
| VIN DE GARDE | Mile |
| BLUE STRIPE | Distaff |
| HOROLOGIST | Distaff |
2) Speed is one of the most elemental factors in horse racing — after all, the idea is to get from point A to point B the fastest — but it’s not as easy to measure as many people think. To begin with, the timing of races is not standard.
In Dubai, for example, the clock starts the instant the gate springs open, whereas, at Del Mar, the site of this year’s Breeders’ Cup races, the timer doesn’t start until the horses have started running. This untimed portion of the race is called the “run-up” and varies by track, distance, and surface.
Then there’s the track itself. Not only does configuration play a part (though not nearly as much in the United States where most tracks are similar), but the surface can change from day to day, even race to race. Many racing fans will remember the torrential downpour right before the start of the 2015 Preakness Stakes, which turned Pimlico Race Course into an equine aquarium.
American Pharoah won that day in the slowest time since 1950 (I still think Michael Phelps could’ve beat him).
This is why Beyer speed figures, which debuted in the Daily Racing Form in 1992 and were named after their creator, Andrew Beyer, created such a stir. Today, commercial speed figures are everywhere, and mutuel prices reflect it — except, that is, in some of the biggest races in America.
For instance, over the past 30 years (excluding 2020 when Covid-19 wrecked the Triple Crown schedule), the horse with the best Brisnet speed figure by at least one point has won the Kentucky Derby five times and returned $3.10 for every $2 wagered to win.
In Breeders’ Cup races contested on the main track (this eliminates the majority of the runners from Europe, where mainstream commercial speed figures are not available), the results are equally impressive. Since 2001, 31 of 109 non-turf BC races (28.4%) were captured by the horse with the best Brisnet speed figure by at least one point. As a group, these speedy steeds produced a profit of 38 cents per dollar wagered.
Horses with the best Brisnet speed figure by at least one point*
| Horse | Race |
| CORNICHE | Juvenile |
| BELLA SOFIA | Filly & Mare Sprint |
| SILVER STATE | Dirt Mile |
| JACKIE’S WARRIOR | Sprint |
| MALATHAAT | Distaff |
3) There’s an old racing maxim that states: weight can stop a freight train. And while that is undoubtedly true, weight is simply not a significant factor in American racing anymore. While the great champion Seabiscuit carried 130 lbs. or more 13 times in his career, Authentic, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic champ, didn’t even race that many times in his career (he’s retired now) — and he never toted more than 126 lbs.
This is not true in Europe, though — which brings up the third thing you need to know about betting the Breeders’ Cup. If you are contemplating playing a horse shipping in from overseas, it must be dropping weight. The reason for this is that, outside the United States, horses are still “handicapped” (graded) by weight. In other words, the faster horses carry more weight, while the slower ones carry less, much like a handicap in golf. (In the US, the field is typically equalized by the race conditions, which will include and exclude horses based on their past performances.)
So, if a horse from Europe is being asked to carry the same or more weight than it did overseas, it is likely inferior to its American counterparts. Since 1997, the only overseas shipper to win a Breeders’ Cup race without carrying less weight than it did last time was Goldikova, the freaky-fast French filly who won the Breeders’ Cup Mile three consecutive years (2008-2010).
The weight-off rule applies to older North American-based horses too. One of the reasons the handicap system fell apart in the States was the constant complaining from owners and trainers over weight assignments. So, it stands to reason that, if those on the backstretch think weight is a crucial factor, bettors should too, especially on the turf, where the finishes tend to be a lot closer.
Horses three years old and up carrying less weight in the BC than they did in their last race*
| Horse | Race |
| CE CE | Filly & Mare Sprint |
| PROUD EMMA | Filly & Mare Sprint |
| A CASE OF YOU | Turf Sprint |
| EMARAATY ANA | Turf Sprint |
| GLASS SLIPPERS | Turf Sprint |
| ACANELLA | Filly & Mare Turf |
| AUDARYA | Filly & Mare Turf |
| LOVE | Filly & Mare Turf |
| OCEAN ROAD | Filly & Mare Turf |
| QUEEN SUPREME | Filly & Mare Turf |
| ROUGIR | Filly & Mare Turf |
| JACKIE’S WARRIOR | Sprint |
| BLOWOUT | Mile |
| MASTER OF THE SEAS | Mile |
| MOTHER EARTH | Mile |
| PEARLS GALORE | Mile |
| QUEEN SUPREME | Mile |
| REAL APPEAL | Mile |
| SPACE BLUES | Mile |
| BLUE STRIPE | Distaff |
| CLAIRIERE | Distaff |
| SHEDARESTHEDEVIL | Distaff |
| BROOME | Turf |
| MOGUL | Turf |
| SISFAHAN | Turf |
| TARNAWA | Turf |
| TEONA | Turf |
| ESSENTIAL QUALITY | Classic |
| HOT ROD CHARLIE | Classic |
Note: Pay attention to the changes prior to post time. At times, the jockey won’t make the weight assigned.
*Today’s race must be over same general surface (turf vs. dirt/all-weather) as horse’s last race.
