Thanks in large part to Ed Fountaine, I broke my Kentucky Derby handicapping maiden in 1984, the year that Swale gave Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr. his first — and only — garland of roses.
So, who is Ed Fountaine, some of you may be asking?
Well, Fountaine was a turf writer for the New York Post. And, every year (or so it seemed), he published a system for selecting the Kentucky Derby winner in American Turf Monthly, a magazine devoted to convincing horseplayers that handicapping can be broken down to a few simple rules and an insufficient workout of past plays. I’m kidding about that latter bit, of course, but there’s no denying that ATM loved its angles and methods.
Fountaine’s system was a perfect example. It awarded points to Kentucky Derby entrants based on a host of criteria that the veteran scribe deemed to be important — and it was that criteria that pointed me to Swale in 1984.
Naturally, the older and wiser I got, the more dubious I became of this kind of “race-ial” profiling, especially since Fountaine’s standards seemed to change every year. In ‘84, for example, he allotted 30 points to the winner of the Arkansas Derby; the year before, the victor got squat. Is it merely a coincidence that Sunny’s Halo captured the 109th Run for the Roses after first triumphing in Hot Springs?
Still, there’s no denying that systems like Fountaine’s are a lot of fun, so in April of 2009 I decided to join the party by producing “Simon’s Historical Investment Technique” for the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, the method lived down to its acronym in the 2009 Run for the Roses, but I re-tooled it in 2010 and, voila, Super Saver proved that my Simon’s Historical Investment Technique didn’t stink, as he won the Derby just like the method predicted he would.
Two years ago, I did some additional tinkering and am now convinced that I have my S.H.I.T. together at long last.
In fact, in looking at the past 28 editions of the Run for the Roses (not including last year’s COVID-impaired renewal), I found that my top Simon’s Historical Investment Technique selection won nine times for — get this — an ROI of 340.3 percent to win, 155.9 percent to place and 90.8 percent to show.
Better still, if you’d played the top four choices in every race, you’d have had the Kentucky Derby winner in 21 of 28 years (75.0 percent) and earned a tidy profit of $16,990 by betting just $100 to win on each qualified selection.
So, with all the background S.H.I.T. out of the way, here are this year’s top contenders to wear the roses:
15-Rock Your World (150 points)
10-Midnight Bourbon (130)
1-Known Agenda (115)
14-Essential Quality (100)
Best of luck to you all today, and remember: it pays to know your Simon’s Historical Investment Technique on the first Saturday in May.
