I can’t take it anymore! If I see one more Kentucky Derby stat that doesn’t provide any context, I’m going to lose it!

You know what I’m talking about, statistics like these:

* Trainer Todd Pletcher is just 2-for-55 in the Run for the Roses.

* No horse has ever worn the roses after breaking from post position 17.

Here’s the problem: the Kentucky Derby is not like any other race. I know, I know, that’s like saying Tom Brady is a pretty good quarterback or that Michael Jordan was a decent basketball player — it’s a massive understatement! Everybody knows that the Kentucky Derby is not like any other race. But how many apply that understanding to Kentucky Derby statistics?

Let me explain. The average field size in North America is about 7.8 horses per race. In the Kentucky Derby over the past 20 years (not counting last year’s COVID debacle), it’s 19.1. This means that the normal win rate for any single factor is approximately 12.8 percent in most races, but just 5.2 percent in the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.

In light of this, we can see that Pletcher’s 3.6 percent win rate in the Derby is really not that bad — especially when one considers that he often has multiple entries in the event, as is the case this year.

What’s more, by applying some simple statistical analysis, we find that there is about a 5.2 percent chance of going 0-for-55 in the Kentucky Derby (given 19.1 horses per race). In betting terms, that’s like a 20-1 shot winning a race — something that happens routinely at racetracks across the country (or at least often enough that people don’t write articles about it).

In order for statistics to have any meaning, we must ask these questions: What is normal? What is not normal?

So, with that in mind, let’s look at some statistics on this year’s Kentucky Derby:

PROS

1) Undefeated horses are nine of 30 in the Kentucky Derby, with an 8.5 percent ROI. As favorites, they are eight of 17 with a 49.7 percent ROI.

2021 QUALIFIERS: ESSENTIAL QUALITY (LIKELY FAVORITE), HELIUM and ROCK YOUR WORLD.

2) Over the past 28 years, six horses (of 39) won the Kentucky Derby after recording an LSR of -5 or greater and an ESR of less than 0 in their final prep, producing profits across the board.

2021 QUALIFIERS: KNOWN AGENDA and HIGHLY MOTIVATED.           

3) Horses with the best Brisnet speed figure are six of 35 in the Run for the Roses since 1992.

2021 QUALIFIERS: ESSENTIAL QUALITY, ROCK YOUR WORLD and HIGHLY MOTIVATED.

CONS

1) Horses that finished worse than fourth last time are 0-for-64 in the Derby over the past 28 years. Worse, only two — Wild Gale (1993) and Denis of Cork (2008) — even hit the board. Both finished third.

2021 QUALIFIERS: KEEPMEINMIND and MANDALOUN.

2) Derby entrants that went to post at odds of 15-1 or greater in their last start are zip for 74 in the big race since 1992, and only Ice Box (2010) and Golden Soul (2013) completed the exacta.

2021 QUALIFIERS: BOURBONIC, DYNAMIC ONE, HELIUM, HIDDEN STASH and O BESOS.

3) Since 1992, only one of 59 horses with eight Quirin Speed Points has won the Kentucky Derby (Big Brown in 2008).

2021 QUALIFIERS: MIDNIGHT BOURBON.