Recently, I cashed an exacta ticket featuring a 97-1 winner. Now, typically, I’m not the boastful type, but, in this case, I made an exception and posted about it on Facebook (hey, I was in a celebratory move).
Well, this led to the request that I also post the past performances of the horse, which I agreed to do, but I thought a short piece on the race might be helpful as well, so here it is.
To begin with, the name of the horse was High Opinion, and she won the third race — a maiden special weight affair for fillies and mares at seven furlongs on the turf — at Belmont Park on Oct. 10, 2020.
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At first blush, her past performance lines — she’d run just twice before — look nondescript, but I want to show you my Pace Profile Report, which ranks each horse for overall speed, along with early and late energy expenditure.
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Note that High Opinion ranks third in overall speed (first boxed number) and fourth in late energy (last number; the middle number is High Opinion’s early energy ranking).
Is this a horse that deserves to be 97-1 on the tote board?
I sure didn’t think so. Personally, I thought the filly fit very well against those that had started before and I absolutely loved the slight cutback in distance.
Of course, I know what you’re thinking: What about the first-time starters in the race (there were five)? Well, I considered two things:
- According to a database study I did several years ago, first-time starters at seven furlongs produce a woeful -29% return on investment (ROI). Even when the firster is the morning-line favorite, the numbers don’t change much.
- Several years ago, I devised a very simplistic workout rating system and I found that the net return on horses with a final workout rated 75% or better is $1.67 — greater than the $1.50 net return on all horses and substantially greater than the return on horses with a sub-75% final work ($1.42).
Last Workout Ratings
*Alemia (38%)
Pinch of Grace (79%)
Translate (92%)
Zaccapa (35%)
High Opinion (78%)
M Is for Magic (NR)
*Vienna Code (0%)
*Nubian (93%)
*Counterparty Risk (38%)
*The Girl Herself (38%)
Slip Sliding Away (70%)
*First-time starter.
Interestingly, Counterparty Risk was made the post-time favorite and she edged out Nubian, the only first-timer I used on my four-horse exacta ticket, to finish a well-beaten fourth.
So, you see, this race was actually a very good betting affair. I thought Translate was clearly the one to beat, so I keyed her in an exacta box with the other logical contenders — Nubian, Zaccapa and, yes, High Opinion.
Translate opened up a four-length lead with a furlong to go in the race, but High Opinion, who had been last early, nailed her in the final strides, resulting in a $2 exacta that paid $1,005.
