Ce Ce, a two-time Grade 1 winner, has been installed as the 3-5 morning line favorite in Sunday’s Santa Maria Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park. Fresh off a victory in the Apple Blossom Stakes (G1) against 13 rivals on April 18 at Oaklawn Park, Ce Ce will face just four foes on Sunday — but I still think she’s an underlay.
It’s not a case of questionable ability. The four-year-old daughter of Elusive Quality is clearly talented, and I love her versatility. She can sit just off the pace, which she did in the Beholder Mile (G1), or she can come from further back, as was the case in the aforementioned Apple Blossom. Given that the projected early speed ration (ESR) of the Santa Maria is a -9, I expect Ce Ce to be no more than a few lengths back after the first half-mile of Sunday’s 1 1/16-mile journey.
The problem for Ce Ce is that she simply doesn’t have a huge margin for error. Now, at 3-1 or even 2-1 that might not be a big issue, but at odds-on — yeah, it’s a problem.
Among the horses that I think could give Ce Ce a run for her money are Hard Not to Love, Horologist and the 20-1 bomb Kaydetre. Heck, even the one horse I didn’t mention — Fighting Mad — stands a shot, as she figures to set the pace and that alone makes her dangerous. Let’s take a closer look at each:
HARD NOT TO LOVE
After a stellar 3-year-old campaign — four wins from five starts, including the La Brea Stakes (G1) — this gal was a distant second to Ce Ce in the Beholder Mile. But here’s the thing: In that race, she set the pace and recorded an insane -15 ESR.
That’s just not her game.
Yeah, she’s shown speed in the past, but very few horses will win a graded stakes — at any distance — expending that much energy early. I expect this John Shirreffs trainee to rate much better today and improve in this her second try around two turns. (She’ll also receive four pounds from Ce Ce after spotting that rival 3 lbs. in the Beholder.)
FIGHTING MAD
Her advantage lies in the fact that she should be on the engine — and that makes her a threat, especially if she can slow down the pace. Unfortunately for her supporters, I don’t think that’s likely, as practically every horse in this field has decent early speed. Still, she definitely has a shot.
HOROLOGIST
After what was arguably a career-best effort in the ungraded Nellie Morse at Laurel Park on March 14, this girl had a hellacious trip in the Apple Blossom, yet still finished “just” five lengths behind Ce Ce. This is another case of price dictating my action. At less than 5-1, I’m not too interested in this daughter of Gemologist, but if she’s 10-1 or 15-1, she’s probably worth a buck or two. (Pay special attention to this filly if there is a negative show pool on Ce Ce.)
KAYDETRE
This is the only mare in the field and she’s going to be a massive price, but I think she has a shot. True, the David Randall trainee is not at the level of the others in this Grade 2 event, but she’s never been sharper than she is now and I think that’s especially noteworthy given the interrupted training schedules caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
Bottom Betting Line: I would try to beat Ce Ce in both vertical and horizontal wagers. Yeah, she’s the most likely winner, but I don’t believe her odds will be reflective of her actual winning chances. At anything less than 4-5, I’m looking elsewhere. Also, keep an eye out for negative pools and bet accordingly.
