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HORSE RACING PLAY OF THE DAY STATS
Races Bet: 7
Races Won: 3
Success Rate: 42.9%
Units Won/Lost: 616.25
ROI: +88.04%
Note: Units won/lost and ROI based on 100-unit bets. To be considered a “win”, the race must’ve produced a net profit. Results current through April 14, 2019.
Aqueduct Race 1
This race is very interesting to me, because 2-FORT WORTH, the 2/5 morning line favorite, doesn’t really look like a 2/5 morning line favorite to me. Sure, he’s a $550,000 2-year-old purchase trained by Todd Pletcher and he recorded an 89 Brisnet speed figure in his debut — but that’s where his odds-on attributes end.
Fort Worth’s Dosage Index is 8.00 (yeah, I know, Dosage is not that meaningful, but an 8.00 at least suggests that today’s stretch-out to a mile is not going to be beneficial) and his dam, Auspicious, has had one other foal make it to the races — Missbigtimes, who recently won a $25K maiden claiming affair for NY-breds.
So, I’m looking to beat this guy with 1-PAPA JIM, who recorded and insane -15 early speed ration last time, yet still withstood the challenge of the 3-2 favorite Pier Forty (while succumbing to eventual winner Bebe Barker) in his last race.
I’ll also be using 4-RED ZINGER, who recorded a race-best -8 LSR last time.
Bet(s): WIN & SHOW on 1 and 4.
Fonner Park Race 2
I couldn’t find much in the way of value on Sunday, but the second race at Fonner Park does feature a high-percentage overlay play in 2-Heisayankee, who is listed at 8-5 on the Databasebetting.com Horse Racing Report. Historically, favorites with morning line odds greater than their fair odds win over half the time and offer bettors a 7.7 percent Kelly advantage.
Heisayankee is a dyed-in-the-wool frontrunner, who is 3-for-4 in races under five furlongs for trainer Isai Gonzalez, who has turned his career around after an inauspicious beginning. From 2005 to 2014, Gonzalez had a 6.8 percent win rate. Yet, since 2016, his charges have visited the winner’s circle at a 17.9 percent clip.
I think Heisayankee stands a good shot at bolstering that figure.
Play(s): WIN on 2.
Result: Heisayankee won, paying $3.60.
Golden Gate Fields Race 7
Two horses stretching out to a distance of ground look best on paper in this spot — 5-Brilliant Richie has been made the 8/5 morning line choice off a wire-to-wire, maiden-breaking score at five furlongs on Feb. 23 and 7-Ticketed, the 4-1 third choice, is trying a route for the first time, with decent speed figures in tow.
Both horses have solid late speed rations as well, but the filly that I think offers the most value is 1-She’s a Spy. Like the aforementioned two, the daughter of Boisterous is also relatively new to the two-turn ranks, having broken her maiden last time out at today’s one-mile distance.
Although that race wasn’t very fast, she’s recorded some decent speed numbers in the past and did earn an outstanding +1 LSR in the Feb. 17 contest. Granted, I don’t think She’s a Spy is an empty-your-bank-account kind of play — she’s not even the most likely winner, in my opinion — but her probable price (10-1 on the morning line) makes her worth a deuce or two.
Play(s): WIN & PLACE on 1.
Result: Out.
Turf Paradise Race 5
I wanted to highlight the fifth race at Turf Paradise today for one primary reason — to show that low-priced horses can, in fact, be overlays. Although 3-Lil Bit of Thunder is 7-5 on the morning line, he’s even odds on the Databasebetting Horse Racing Report and, according to my studies, has about a 60 percent chance of winning this afternoon.
Now, consider this: The average positive-expectancy sports pick offers a success rate of 53-60 percent and odds of around 9-10 (4/5 on the racetrack tote board).
So, which is the better bet?
Look, I totally understand why horseplayers eschew lower-priced horses — if you can’t produce a high rate of winners, you shouldn’t be playing horses with skimpy odds. But there are exceptions and I think Lil Bit of Thunder is one of them.
Play(s): WIN on 3.
Result: Lil Bit of Thunder won, paying $3.20.
Turf Paradise Race 3
2-Singaprayer returns to Turf Paradise after a sojourn to Rillito Racetrack, where he won a 5 ½-furlong contest in wire-to-wire fashion as the odds-on favorite. Today, I think the son of Songandaprayer offers good value, as he is 7-2 on the morning line and 2-1 on the TUP Databasebetting Horse Racing Report.
Interestingly, only Singaprayer and the morning line favorite 6-Maii are under the age of 8 in this field.
Play(s): WIN on 2.
Result: Out.
Golden Gate Fields Race 4
Although the Race Rating is only 36 percent — below the 50 percent minimum that I like to see — this race is interesting to me due to three horses: 1-Fabriana, 2-Queenoftheroad and 6-Lady Beware.
Let’s start with the latter.
Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by William Antongeorgi, Lady Beware is dropping to the lowest class level of her career. After competing for a $20,000 tag last time, she’s eligible to be claimed for just $8,000 today. Now, in many cases, such a drastic move would be a huge positive, but I don’t think that’s the case here.
Yes, Hollendorfer has a 26 percent success rate with horses dropping 2+ class levels over the past year, but his ROI in such instances is -29 percent — considerably worse than his overall -22 percent ROI in 2018-19, despite the above-average win rate.
Then there’s the horse itself. The Irish daughter of Dragon Pulse has never won on the main track and, in fact, was beaten by a combined 33 ¾ lengths in her two off-the-turf tries — on today’s Tapeta surface in her last start and on the dirt at Churchill Downs on Nov. 18.
At 2-1 on the morning line, I think Lady Beware is very vulnerable.
The horse with the best chance to beat the morning line choice is Fabriana. While I suspect she has some physical issues, it’s hard to argue with her recent efforts. She’s got the best recent late speed rations in the race — by a mile — and is the only confirmed frontrunner in the field.
The other horse that I think has a huge shot and will likely be my key, depending on the final odds, is Queenoftheroad. Upon being claimed by little-known trainer Robert O. Allen, she was immediately entered in a route race — which she won going away, despite trouble in the stretch (see below).
Now here’s the crazy thing: The daughter of Leroidesanimaux has — surprise, surprise — a 1.80 Dosage Index and is 4-for-8 in races of a mile or greater. Why she has been competing in sprints for the majority of her career is beyond me. In fact, if you watch the video above, you’ll notice that Queenoftheroad appears to catch her second wind into the stretch — and she closes like a freight train when finally clear.
At 15-1 on the morning line (I can’t imagine her being anywhere near that price), I think the 7-year-old mare offers tremendous value. I’ll be using her on all my tickets.
Play(s): 75% of wager to WIN & PLACE on 2. Remaining 25% on EXACTA 1-2 with 1-2-4-5.
Result: Queenoftheroad won, paying $38.20 to win and $12.00 to place. The exacta missed.
Scratches: 4.
Bonus Play: Santa Anita Park Race 6
5-Sturdy One (2-1 morning line odds) has recorded six of her eight lifetime wins at Santa Anita Park and has placed (finished first or second) in 59 percent of her starts over the Arcadia, California oval.
She possesses a 13 percent Kelly advantage in this spot and need only work out a decent trip behind the likely pacesetters — 2-Christy Jackson (5-2), who removes the blinkers today, and 4-Naughty Sophie (4-1), who appears to be rounding back into form and could be a decent price given her last two dirt tries (both of which featured poor starts).
Play(s): 75% of wager to WIN on 5. Remaining 25% on EXACTA KEY BOX 5 with 2-4.
Result: Sturdy One finished third.
