Since its inception in 2000, the UAE Derby (G2), which offers 170 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to the top four finishers on a 100-40-20-10 scale, has produced exactly 14 Kentucky Derby starters — and not one has hit the board.
UAE DERBY (G2). Purse $2,500,000. 1,900 meters.
| # | Name (morning line odds) | Fair Odds |
| 1 | Walking Thunder (5/1) | 10-1 |
| 2 | Jahbath (6/1) | 8-1 |
| 3 | Golden Jaguar (15/1) | 15-1 |
| 4 | Plus Que Parfait (15/1) | 20-1 |
| 5 | Derma Louvre (12/1) | 8-1 |
| 6 | Divine Image (2/1) | 5-2 |
| 7 | Superior (12/1) | 12-1 |
| 8 | Gray Magician (15/1) | 20-1 |
| 9 | Razeena (50/1) | 40-1 |
| 10 | Al Hayette (50/1) | 50-1 |
| 11 | Van Beethoven (10/1) | 15-1 |
| 12 | Stubbins (10/1) | 12-1 |
| 13 | Swift Rose (30/1) | 25-1 |
| 14 | Manguzi (15/1) | 15-1 |
Master of Hounds, who was nipped at the wire by Khawlah in the 2011 UAE Derby, finished fifth in Louisville on the first Saturday in May, which was — and still is — the best finish by a Dubai shipper in the Run for the Roses.
This year, the odds of the UAE Derby champ visiting the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle may be even greater, as the 2-1 morning line favorite in Meydan’s fifth race on Saturday is Divine Image, a filly. In the history of the Kentucky Derby, only three fillies have worn the roses — the last being Winning Colors in 1988.
That said, it’s understandable why the daughter of Scat Daddy has been assigned such short odds this weekend. After narrowly winning the UAE Oaks (G3) over a somewhat dubious group — the third-place finisher was Razeena, who is still a maiden — Divine Image exploded to a 7 ¼-length win in the Al Bastakiya against males, recording a race-best 107 Racing Post Rating in the process.
Still, I’m not a huge fan. First, that 107 RPR last time is nothing to write home about. Last year, Mendelssohn had three Racing Post Ratings that exceeded that figure prior to his big win in Dubai and, the year before, Thunder Snow had five RPRs greater than 107 before he captured the UAE Derby.
One horse that I am a fan of is Jahbath.
He comes to the desert by way of Kempton Park Racecourse in Surrey, England, where he was last seen winning the Road to the Kentucky Derby Conditions Stakes — the same race that Gronkowski won prior to his second-place showing in last year’s Belmont Stakes (G1). (Gronkowski is also entered in the Dubai World Cup later on Saturday’s Meydan card.)
Another horse to keep your eyes on is Walking Thunder, who captured the UAE 2000 Guineas Trial Stakes in devastating fashion before suffering his first and only defeat in the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) itself.
