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PLAY OF THE DAY STATS
Number: 24
Winners: 13
Win Rate: 54.2%
Units Won/Lost (100-unit plays): 522
ROI: +21.75%

16-North Dakota State (19-15) vs. 1-Duke (29-5)

In a recent article, I noted that “hot” favorites made for terrible bets in the NCAA Basketball Tournament and North Dakota State fits that description to a T, having won five straight games to punch its ticket to the Big Dance.

The Bison were 14-15 prior to that late-season run and now find themselves 26 ½-point underdogs against Duke, which has 16 previous Final Four appearances and a coach — Mike Krzyzewski — who holds the all-time record for tournament wins with 94 (Roy Williams of North Carolina is second with 77).

Granted, 26 ½ points is a big number, but the Blue Devils are 8-4 in the postseason when favored by 20 points or more and, historically speaking, similar favorites have offered bettors a six percent Kelly advantage in all college basketball games since 2007.

There appears to be value on the over/under line too, as the under has cashed in 70 percent of the games in which Duke was favored by 20 points or more since 2015.

• The under is 21-9 the last 30 times Duke has been favored by 20 points or more.
• In their past 30 games, the Blue Devils are 19-11 when favored by 20 points or more.
• North Dakota State is 2-4 as an underdog of 20 points or more since 2010.
• In the Bison’s 45 tournament games since 1997, the game has gone under the total 24 times.

Play: Parlay Duke to win (-26 or greater) and under 148 ½.

Result: Duke (-26) 85, North Dakota State 62.

Bonus Play: 14-Northern Kentucky (26-8) vs. 3-Texas Tech (26-6)

Historically, teams with a Bet Rating of greater than 2.00 and a PF/PA margin of at least 5.0 have covered over 56 percent of the time when underdogs by 10 points or more.

More specifically, the Norse are 11-10 as underdogs of 10 points or more, while the Red Raiders from Texas Tech  are just 12-18 when favored by 10+ points.

Interestingly, these two teams have faced each other just once before, on Dec. 4, 2012, at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas, where Texas Tech claimed a 75-69 victory.

Play: Northern Kentucky (+13 ½ or greater).

Result: Northern Kentucky (+13 1/2) 57, Texas Tech 72.

14-Old Dominion (26-8) vs. 3-Purdue (23-9)

The NCAA Basketball Tournament gets underway tonight and this match-up, featuring the No. 3 seed in the South (Purdue) against the No. 14 seed Old Dominion, appears to offer great value. Even though, over the past 11 years, the No. 3 seed has a 53.9 percent win rate against the spread, teams with a Bet Rating of 2.00 or greater and a positive points for/points against margin have generally performed well as double-digit underdogs.

The Monarchs come into tonight’s contest with a 2.12 Bet Rating and a 5.4 PF/PA margin. Since 1995, teams of this type have offered bettors an eight percent Kelly advantage when receiving 10 points or more from the bookmakers.

• Since 1997, Old Dominion is 5-25 SU when underdogs by 10 points or more.
• In their past 30 games, the Monarchs are 18-11-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs.
• Purdue is 27-3 SU and 16-14 ATS in its last 30 games when favored by 10 points or more.
• In Old Dominion’s last 71 games on a neutral court, the under has cashed 50 times (70.4 percent)
• The over has cashed 68 times (58.6 percent) in Purdue’s last 116 neutral-court games.

Play: Win on Old Dominion (+12 or greater).

Result: Old Dominon (+12 1/2) 48, Purdue 61.

Detroit (36-33) at Cleveland (17-53)

The last time these two teams met — at Quicken Loans Arena on March 2 — the Pistons built up a 19-point lead after the first quarter and a 33-point lead by halftime en route to a 129-93 victory as 8-point road favorites. So, why has money been pouring in on Cleveland ever since Detroit opened up as a 7-point favorite?

Undoubtedly it’s because, earlier today, Pistons coach Dwane Casey announced that the team would be resting leading scorer Blake Griffin, who is averaging 24.7 points per game, to keep the 30-year-old forward fresh for the playoffs. Currently, the Pistons have the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference and Casey is trying to prevent Griffin from playing in back-to-back games (Detroit beat Toronto yesterday).

Alrighty then! But does that justify the current spread (Cleveland is only a 4 ½-point underdog at the time of this writing)? After all, Kevin Love is nursing a sore back and may not play, while Larry Nance Jr., who scored 11 points in the first meeting, is definitely out with a chest injury.

I don’t think so. What’s more, since 1993, road favorites with a Bet Rating of at least 1.00, whose odds decreased from their previous game, are 387-332 (53.8 percent). And further database testing reveals that teams like Cleveland (similar Bet Rating, fair odds, point margin, etc.) have been good bet-against prospects.

The Kelly advantage here is small (3-5 percent), but I think Detroit is worth a buck or two.

• The Pistons are 18-12 ATS against the Cavaliers since 2012.
• Over the past 30 games of this series, the winning team has won by more than 4 ½ points (today’s spread) 26 times.
• Since 1996, 64 of 107 (59.8 percent) games in this series have gone under the total.
• Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.

Play: Win on Detroit (-5 or greater).

Result: No Play (price not met).

St. Louis (36-27-6-1) at Pittsburgh (39-23-7-2)

Since hockey is the only sport that has produced a loss thus far, we’ll go back to the ice today where there are some really good-looking value plays on the schedule, starting with this game.

The Penguins have won the last two match-ups between these two teams by wide margins — 6-1 on Dec. 29 and 4-1 last season. Based on extensive database testing, Pittsburgh has about a 65 percent chance of winning again today, which, at the current moneyline of -145, equates to a Kelly advantage of approximately 10 percent.  

• These teams have split their last 30 meetings, although Pittsburgh has won three of the past four.
• Over the past 24 years, the Penguins are 165-132 with a 5.7 percent ROI in March.
• 14 of the past 24 games in this series have gone under the total, good for a 13.8 percent ROI.

Play: Win on Pittsburgh (at -145 on the moneyline or greater).

Result: St. Louis 5, Pittsburgh (-140) 1.

Bonus Play: Toronto (43-23-5-0) at Ottawa (24-41-5-1)

This game highlights what I always preach about successful wagering — it’s about finding value, not  finding the best team or the most likely winner.

The best team here is obviously Toronto.

The Maple Leafs are tied with the Washington Capitals for the third-most points in the Eastern Conference, while the Senators have the fewest points in the entire National Hockey League. Toronto has also won three of the past four meetings between these teams.

But based on database testing, Ottawa has about a 35 percent chance of winning today, which means a positive expectancy of about 15 cents on every dollar bet (15 percent ROI).

• Ottawa is 159-137 (+9 units) in March games since 1996.
• The over is 19-10-1 in the last 30 meeting between these teams, including 9-1 over the past three seasons.
• Toronto is 17-5 (+9.4 units) this season after allowing four goals or more in their previous game.

Play: Win on Ottawa (at +230 on the moneyline or greater).

Result: Toronto 2, Ottawa (+230) 6.

North Texas (21-11) vs. Western Kentucky (18-13)

North Texas broke a seven-game straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) losing streak by beating Florida International last night after two previous defeats at the hands of the Golden Panthers.

That should help the Mean Green Eagles’ confidence going into this evening’s match-up with Western Kentucky, which has won 21 of the last 26 meetings and covered in 15 of those games, with one push.

However, the real value in this game is on the O/U line, which is the lowest in the history of the series at 129 points. In the 26 games between these teams, dating back to Feb. 3, 2001, that figure has been exceeded 23 times and database studies indicate there is about a 57 percent chance of that happening again tonight.

• Under is 17-8-2 in Western Kentucky’s last 27 games at a neutral site.
• Western Kentucky is 14-9 ATS against North Texas over the past 23 years.
• 12 of 19 games in this series have gone over the total.

Play: Over 129.

Result: 118 total
(North Texas 51, Western Kentucky 67).

Tampa Bay Lightning (52-13-3-1) at Toronto Maple Leafs (42-21-5-0)

Tampa Bay is looking to avenge an earlier loss to Toronto and brings the NHL’s best record into tonight’s contest at Scotiabank Arena. However, even though the Lightning have won five of the past seven meetings between these two teams, the Databasebetting.com Hockey Betting Report suggests ther is value in wagering on the home team.

As was pointed out a couple of days ago, favored teams with the best Bet Rating and a goals-for/goals-against margin of 0.5 or greater win nearly 2/3 of the time and offer bettors a Kelly advantage of approximately seven percent. This bet becomes even more enticing when one notes that Toronto is an overlay based on the fair odds listed in the Report.

• Since 1996, the Maple Leafs are 45-36 (+8.2 units) against the spread versus the Lightning.
• Over the past 24 years, 38 of 73 games in this series have gone under the total, returning 1.6 units profit.
• In Toronto, the under is 21-14 (+5.3 units) since 1996.

Play: Toronto (-110 or greater on the moneyline).

Result: Tampa Bay 6, Toronto 2.

Bonus Play: Carolina Hurricanes (37-24-5-2) at Colorado Avalanche (30-27-11-1)

Home teams — like Colorado — that have the best Bet Rating and a positive goals-for/goals-against margin have produced an eight percent ROI as overlays (actual odds greater than fair odds) since 2007. Given this, I like the Avalanche at the current price of -110 today, despite the fact that the Avalanche have a 20-20 record as favorites this season.

• Colorado is 19-10 (+10.1 units) against the spread versus Carolina over the past 24 years.
• The Avalanche are 8-1 as home favorites against Carolina since 1999.
• 10 of the last 14 games between these teams have gone over the total in Colorado.

Play: Colorado (-110 or greater on the moneyline).

Result: Carolina 3, Colorado 0.

North Texas (20-10) at FIU (18-12)

I chose this game among all the great college basketball games on Saturday, because I find North Texas fascinating. The Mean Green Eagles were cruising along at 20-4 when they dropped a close decision at home to Western Kentucky after storming back from a 15-point halftime deficit.

Part of the Mean Green Eagles’ problem in that game was the fact that nearly half their shots — 32 of 67, to be exact — were 3-pointers… and they missed 25 of them. This poor shooting carried over to the next game, on the road against Florida Atlantic, where North Texas shot just 33.3 percent.

Today, headed into their rematch with Florida International, the Mean Green Eagles stand at 20-10, having lost six in a row. Much of this slide can be traced to guard Roosevelt Smart, who has regressed badly in his junior year. After leading North Texas in scoring last year at 19.5 points per game, Smart is averaging just 11.2 PPG this season and shot an abysmal 27.6 percent during the team’s six-game losing streak.

That said, his last two games have been much better and it’s hard to believe that the Mean Green Eagles will continue to struggle so mightily. North Texas is 16-7 SU all-time against Florida International and the Databasebetting.com Basketball Betting Report suggests that the value lies with the visiting team on Saturday.

However, the most value might be on the over/under line. Not only have six of the nine games at Ocean Bank Convocation Center gone under the total, but my database studies suggest that the under offers bettors around an 11-12 percent Kelly advantage.

• Florida International is 13-10 against the spread versus North Texas since 1997.
• Over the past 23 years, North Texas is 29-14 as a road underdog of three points or less.
• The over has cashed 10 times out of 19 in this series.               

Play: Under 151 points.

Result: 131 total
(North Texas 58, Florida International 73).

Bonus Play (NHL): St. Louis Blues (36-25-5-1) at San Jose Sharks (40-19-5-3)

Favored teams with the best Bet Rating and a goals-for/goals-against margin of 0.5 or greater win nearly 2/3 of the time and offer bettors a Kelly advantage of approximately seven percent.

Play: San Jose (-145 or greater on the moneyline).

Result: San Jose (-140) 3, St. Louis 2.

Cincinnati (25-4) at Central Florida (22-6)

The Cincinnati Bearcats have dominated this series, winning 10 of the 11 games, including eight by double digits.

Given this and the Databasebetting Basketball Betting Report data (below), it’s hard to understand why UCF is favored this evening. Like Seton Hall last night, I think Cincinnati is a fantastic play on the moneyline (at +120 or greater).

• In their 11 previous meeting, Cincinnati has scored an average of 64.5 points per game, while UCF has averaged 50.1 PPG.
• 10 of those 11 games have gone under the total.
• Cincinnati has covered the spread in seven of its previous 11 matchups with Central Florida.

Play: Cincinnati (+120 or greater on the moneyline).

Result: Cincinnati (+125) 55, Central Florida 58.

Marquette (23-6) at Seton Hall (16-12)

Marquette has won four of the last five meetings between these two teams, including a 70-66 victory at home on Jan. 12, in which the Golden Eagles outscored the Pirates by 14 points at the free throw line.

What’s more, Seton Hall is just 2-8 ATS at home versus Marquette since Jan. 11, 2006 and the visiting team is 19-5-1 ATS over the past 25 games of this series.

All in all, it looks like the Golden Eagles are the play, right?

Wrong.

Look, I admit I don’t have a real strong opinion on this game, but I do think that Seton Hall has a slight statistical advantage based on the Bet Ratings and fair odds — particularly on the moneyline.

At the current 115-120 line, I figure the Pirates have about a 48 percent chance of winning and they offer bettors a Kelly advantage of about three percent, based on my database testing.

• Over the past 23 years, Marquette is 19-6 straight-up against Seton Hall.
• 12 of 23 games in this series have gone under the total since 1997
• The Golden Eagles are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games.

Play: Seton Hall (+115 or greater on the moneyline).

Result: Seton Hall (+125) 73, Marquette 64.

Nebraska (15-14) at Michigan State (23-6)

In the last four meetings between these two teams, Michigan State is 4-0 against the spread… but I think this time will be different.

To begin with, Nebraska has a better Bet Rating. Since 2007, road teams with the best Bet Rating that were underdogs by 10 points or greater have produced a 3.0 percent ROI. Teams with a positive point differential — like Nebraska — fare even better, offering bettors a Kelly advantage of about six percent.

Undoubtedly the line on tonight’s game — the Spartans are 14-point favorites at press time — has been influenced by the Cornhuskers recent road woes, as they have been beaten by a combined 72 points in their last three games away from Lincoln, Nebraska.

Still, if they can find a way to contain MSU’s junior guard Cassius Winston, who scored a career-high 32 points in the first meeting between these two teams on Jan. 17, the ‘huskers should be able to keep it close — especially if their leading scorer James Palmer Jr. can rebound from a subpar effort at Michigan last time.

• Nebraska is 2-10 against the spread in its last 12 games.
• Michigan State is 19-7 ATS as the favorite in its last 26 games.
• Since 1997, the Cornhuskers are 23-33 ATS as road underdogs of 12 ½ points or greater.
• The Spartans are 173-136 (56 percent) ATS at home over the past 23 years.
• In MSU’s last 56 homes games featuring an O/U total of 135-139.5, the under has cashed 33 times (58.9 percent).

Play: Nebraska (+13 or greater).

Result: Michigan State 91, Nebraska (+13 1/2) 76.

Atlanta Hawks (22-42) at Miami Heat (28-34)

This game is intriguing to me not so much because of the Bet Ratings or other report data, but, rather, because the point spread — Miami is a 9-point favorite at the time of this writing — seems out of whack.

A -9 spread equates to a moneyline of approximately -655, yet Miami is just -102 on the Database Basketball Betting Report. NBA road teams, like Atlanta, that are 300%+ overlays have produced a 4-5 percent Kelly advantage since 2007.

And these broad statistics are bolstered up by the fact that, since December 2013, the Hawks are 9-2-1 as underdogs against the Heat. Atlanta has also won the last three times these two teams have faced each other, including a 106-82 landslide victory earlier this year.

• Over the past 24 years, Miami is 55-37 against the spread against Atlanta.
• 55 of 93 games in this series have gone under the total since 1996, including 32 of 47 in Miami.
• Miami is 27-23 ATS against teams allowing 106 points per game or more (Atlanta is allowing an average of 119).
• Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
• Under is 6-1 in Heat’s last 7 games following a straight-up win.

Play: Atlanta (+9 or greater).

Result: Miami 114, Atlanta (+10) 113.

Rider (15-14) at Marist (12-17)

Rider has won the past five meetings between these two teams and eight of the last nine. The last time they played, though — also on a Sunday, Jan. 27 at Rider — the Broncs had no answer for 6’6” forward Ryan Funk, who scored a career-high 32 points and shot 10-of-15 from the field, including 7-of-11 from three-point land.

As a team, the Red Foxes were 15-of-27 from beyond the arc — considerably better than their 36.5 percent success rate for the season.

That said, it should be pointed out that, for whatever reason, Rider traditionally performs better on Marist’s home floor than on its own. Since 1997, the Broncs are 13-5 against the spread at Marist and just 7-13 ATS at home.

But the biggest thing Rider has going for it today is a superior Bet Rating as well as fair odds that make the Broncs a significant overlay, even spotting two points, which is the case at the time of this writing.

This gives Rider a Kelly advantage in excess of 10 percent.

• The over is 20-7-1 in Rider’s last 28 road games.
• Marist is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 Sunday games.
• The visiting team is 25-10 ATS in the last 35 meetings between these two teams.
• When Marist has been the home team, 8 of the last 12 games in this series have gone under the total.

Play: Rider (-3 or greater).

Result: Rider (-2 1/2) 75, Marist 64.

March 2, 2019
Penn National Race 5

Although there are some good basketball games — in both the college and pro ranks — on tap today, I think the greatest potential value resides in the fifth race at Penn National this evening, where 2-Flattering Ruby is 9-2 on the morning line, despite 2-1 fair odds on the Databasebetting.com Horse Racing Betting Report.  

Not only does the daughter of Mad Flatter boast a Kelly advantage of 6-7 percent, but she has consistently recorded top speed figures. I also like the fact that she should be able to carve out the early fractions or, at worst, sit just off the pace.

5-Socially Driven should also be in the early hunt and, to me, represents the greatest danger to the top choice. 7-Shacklefords Lady and 4-I’ll Take the Cake should also be on your exacta and trifecta tickets.

Play: Win on 2-Flattering Ruby.

Result: Out.

March 1, 2019
Milwaukee (47-14) at L.A. Lakers (30-31)

This game is intriguing on multiple fronts, which is why it was chosen as the Play of the Day. To begin with the Kelly advantage appears to be strong — but I stress “appears to be,” because the sample size on which I’m basing this claim is wholly insufficient.

As has been the case with a lot of NBA games this season, I think there’s value on the over/under line. However, as I’ve noted previously, scoring is way up in recent years — and, particularly, this year — so historical numbers must be viewed in this context. In some cases, it really is an apples and oranges comparison.

For example, in their last 29 meetings, the Bucks and Lakers have exceeded today’s O/U total of 238 ½ just once — and that was in an overtime game last year (minus the OT, the game falls under the number). But — and this is a Sir Mix-a-Lot-sized “but” — if we adjust those previous totals to account for the increased scoring this year, we find that “only” 21 finished under today’s O/U line of 238 1/2. Obviously, this is still very good, but it does emphasize why statistics must be considered in context.

https://youtu.be/k5hL_EKb0Ns

And, of course, that doesn’t even address the fact that these are not the same two teams — at least in terms of rosters — as in those previous years.

All that said, I’m still betting tonight’s game will go under the total. Not only do I think 238 ½ is a little high, I believe there could be more emphasis on defense in this game, based on recent media reports.

After Lakers’ star LeBron James was singled out for his sporadic defensive play in the press recently, he said this to Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports: “I mean, every team has the right if they want to single me out defensively. Come on with it.”

“… We’ll see what happens,” James concluded.

• Bucks are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 road games versus teams with a winning home record.
• The over is 7-0 in Los Angeles’ last seven games against teams with a winning straight-up record.
• Lakers are 21-19 ATS versus Milwaukee since 1996.
• Since 1996, 22 of 41 games in this series have gone under the total.
• Milwaukee is 2-6 ATS against the Lakers in last eight meetings.

Play: Under 238 ½.

Result: 251 total
(Milwaukee 131, Los Angeles Lakers 120).

Feb. 28, 2019
Tampa Bay (49-15) at Boston (37-26)

We’re going to the NHL for today’s Play of the Day, with the hope that the ice doesn’t cool us down. This evening, the Boston Bruins are slated to host the Tampa Bay Lightning and the game features a great betting angle — one with a high win rate and a Kelly advantage between 10-15 percent.

But before we talk about that, let’s discuss the matchup a bit.

Tampa Bay has won 10 in a row following a two-game home losing streak. The Lightning have the best record in the NHL — by a mile — and beat Boston in their only meeting this season (as -166 home favorites).

The Bruins have also been hot, winning eight of their last nine and 10 of their last 12. Boston is 60-37 (+14.5 units) against the spread versus Tampa Bay since 1996 and 4-3 at home against the Lightning over the past three seasons.

However, what really tips the scales in favor of the boys from Beantown is the fact that they are home favorites with a positive goals for/goals against differential of 0.5 — and, most importantly, they are overlays. At the time of this writing, Boston was -123 on the moneyline, yet the Bruins’ Databasebetting Hockey Report fair odds line is -140 (see below).

Historically speaking, such teams win about 60 percent of the time and produce a very nice profit.

• Boston is 62-30-6 straight-up against Tampa Bay since 1996.
• 44 of 87 games in this series have gone OVER the total since 1996.
• The Bruins are 8-7-0 straight-up against the Lightning over the last 3 seasons.
• Boston is 34-16 (+12.4 units) ATS against Tampa Bay since 1996.
• Favorite is 25-11 in the last 36 meetings.

Play: Boston (greater than -140).

Result: Boston (-125) 4, Tampa Bay 1.

Feb. 27, 2019
UC Riverside (9-19) at CSU Northridge (11-17)

The last time these two teams faced each other, Terrell Gomez, who is all of 5’8″ and 160 pounds, played like he was twice that size, as he paced CSU Northridge with 32 points, including 18 from beyond the arc. In that Jan. 9 game, the Matadors had four starters play 34 minutes or more, whereas only Dikymbe Martin played 34 minutes or more for the Highlanders.

Not surprisingly, CSU Northridge won that road contest, 84-83, as 1 1/2-point favorites.

What is surprising is that, on Wednesday, the Matadors have been installed as 7-point favorites at home. Perhaps bettors are concerned about UC Riverside’s 1-12 road record, but the fact is CSU Northridge has beaten UC Riverside by more than seven points exactly once in their last 10 meetings — and that was last year on the Highlanders’ home court.

The Bet Ratings and historical trends don’t favor the Matadors either.

Home favorites with a Bet Rating less than 1.00 that have won two consecutive games straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) are just 78-97 ATS since 1995.

• The “under” is 36-14-1 in UCRV’s last 51 games played on Wednesday.
• The “over” is 11-4 in CSN’s last 15 home games.
• CSU Northridge is 19-15 ATS versus UC Riverside since 1997.
• Since 1997, UC Riverside is 181-178 as an underdog.
• The Matadors are 83-95 as favorites — including 6-16 when spotting their opponents six points or more — since 1997.
• CSU Northridge is 22-40 in Wednesday games over the past 22 years (UC Riverside is 29-28).

Play: UC Riverside (+7).

Result: CSU Northridge 70, UC Riverside 68.

Feb. 26, 2019
Mahoning Valley Race Course Race 7

It was a bit of a challenge picking today’s Play of the Day, as there are a number of promising betting events among the scheduled NCAAB and NHL games on Tuesday evening. However, the greatest Kelly advantage (around 7 percent) is on a horse race — specifically, the seventh race at Mahoning Valley Race Course, where 3-Last Drop of Wine has been made the 5-2 morning line favorite, as he drops to the lowest claiming level ($5,000) of his 19-race career.

The Gary Johnson trainee possesses the best overall speed figures in the field — and he’s got the most early zip as well. However, the entrant that offers the best value is 1-Strongbow, who is 7-2 on the morning line, but has 2-1 fair odds on the Databasebetting Horse Racing Betting Report.

Though the 8-year-old son of Sightseeing got a perfect trip last time, it was still a very impressive effort. And provided 2-Discreetly Firm (4-1) and the probable favorite both go, it’s likely that Strongbow will get another dream trip right behind them. Those betting the exotics should include 3-Last Drop of Wine, 5-One Way to Fame (10-1) and 8-Replay (9-2).

Play: Win on 1-Strongbow.

Result: Strongbow won at odds of 2.8-1 (+280).

Feb. 25, 2019
Golden State (42-17) at Charlotte (28-31)

This game is interesting on a number of levels. To begin with, we have a team — the Golden State Warriors — that has lost six consecutive contests against the spread. Since 1993, road favorites that lost at least four in a row ATS have produced about a 10 percent Kelly advantage when giving fewer points than they did in their previous game. The Warriors were a 12-point favorite in a straight-up losing effort against the Houston Rockets last time and are a 7-point favorite against Charlotte today.

Given that the Hornets have a losing record and Houston is currently nine games above .500, this is somewhat puzzling (although Golden State was at home against the Rockets). What’s more, there appears to be value on the over/under line as well.

Although NBA team scoring has been trending upward since the 2014-15 season — and is up a whopping 9.2 points per game so far this year compared to last year — O/U lines of 230 or greater are still relatively rare and have gone under 54 percent of the time since 2007. Granted, the “over” is 14-9 in Golden State games that have featured an O/U line of 230 points or more this year, but, historically, playing the “under” (considering the Bet Ratings involved and other historical data) has yielded about a 7.5 percent Kelly advantage.

On the negative side, the Warriors might be without Draymond Green on Monday night. Green sprained his left ankle against the Rockets, although head coach Steve Kerr said the injury did not appear to be serious.

Play: 60% of bet on Golden State (-7). Remaining 40% on under 233 ½.

• The “under” is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
• Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games.
• Hornets are 0-4 ATS in their last four contests after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game (Charlotte scored 115 points in a losing effort against Brooklyn last time).
• Charlotte is 14-12 against the spread versus Golden State since 1996.

Result: Golden State 121, Charlotte 110. Total 231.

Feb. 24, 2019
East Tennessee State (22-7) at UNCG (23-5)

UNC-Greensboro has won the last three meetings between these two teams and five of the last seven.

In their last tilt, at Freedom Hall Civic Center in Johnson City, Tennessee, the Spartans showed great balance, with four players scoring in double digits — though second-leading scorer Isaiah Miller was not among them. In fact, the star of the game that night was Angelo Allegri, a 6’7” freshman forward who was 5-of-6 from behind the arc in 16 minutes of play, helping his team to a 75-68 upset victory.

On the other hand, the Buccaneers leading scorer, Patrick Good, had an uncharacteristically bad game — going zip-for-5 from the three-point line and scoring just two points.

Today, the numbers strongly favor UNC-Greensboro and the line — the Spartans are just 1-point home favorites — appears to offer value as well.

Overall, UNC-Greensboro has a 2.14 Bet Rating, but that jumps up to 2.88 in games played on 3-days rest or more (the Spartans last took to the court on Feb. 21). Since 1995, teams like UNC-Greensboro have produced about a 7 percent Kelly advantage.

• UNCG is 20-1 when favored this year.
• UNC-Greensboro and East Tenneesse State are 10-10 ATS in head-to-head matchups since 1997.
• ETSU is 19-7-2 ATS in its last 28 road games.
• The “under” has cashed 15 times in UNCG’s last 21 home games.

Play: UNC-Greensboro (-1).

Result: UNC-Greensboro 60, East Tennessee State 59. Depending on where you played, this game was a push or a win. However, because the line posted at the time of publication was UNCG -1, this game will count as a push for the purposes of our records here.

Feb. 22, 2019
Fair Grounds Race 7

We’re going to leave the hardwood and frolic in the dirt for today’s Play of the Day. After two basketball picks, we’ll go to Fair Grounds Race Course & Sluts (it’s actually “slots”, but I like my name better) and try to cash on an athlete of the equine variety.

In the seventh race, I like 2-Monte Man.

Now, I know what many of you are thinking: “Woo-hoo, you tabbed a horse that is the 7-5 morning-line favorite. If it wins, maybe I can live the life of a baller and buy that twin pack of Slim Jims I’ve been eyeing at the grocery store!”

Look, I know a 140 percent profit on a winning bet is not exactly the stuff of dreams, but, based on my database studies, Monte Man has about a 60 percent chance of visiting the winner’s circle and offers a Kelly advantage of approximately seven percent.

Plus, there’s another way to play this race — by betting a straight 2-4 daily double, combining Monte Man with Noble Thought in the eighth race. The latter has about a five percent Kelly advantage after recording a race-best +2 late speed ration in his last start. Provided the double pays around $20, the Kelly advantage on a straight double is upwards of five percent — with around a 15 percent chance of hitting.

Play: Bet 75% of wagered amount to WIN on 2. Bet the remaining 25% on a straight 2-4 DAILY DOUBLE.

Note: Pass all races that are altered for any reason (turf to dirt, distance is changed, etc.).

Result: 2-Monte Man won at odds of 7/10. The daily double was not bet, as the second leg was taken off the turf.

Feb. 21, 2019
Boston (37-21) at Milwaukee (43-14)

The last time these two teams faced each other, Milwaukee opened up a 13-point lead in the first quarter and never relinquished it, cruising to a 120-107 victory at TD Garden. In that game, the Bucks shot 51.2 percent from the floor as a team and were paced by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s game-high 30 points (including 13 from the free throw line).

While the Celtics should play better today — they even have a decent shot to upset the Eastern Conference leaders — the real value resides with the over/under line. Despite the fact that the “over” is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these teams, today the “under” offers about a 7.6 percent Kelly advantage, based on the line, the individual team Bet Ratings and statistics compiled from 1993-2018.

• The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six road games.
• In their last seven games, the Bucks are 6-1 ATS following a straight-up win.
• Celtics are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these teams, including 8-3 ATS in last 11 in Milwaukee.

Play: Under 229.

Result: 195 total
(Milwaukee 98, Boston 97).

Feb. 20, 2019
Villanova (20-6) at Georgetown (15-10)

Georgetown hasn’t beat Villanova since Jan. 19, 2015, including two defeats last year by an average of 28 points. The first matchup this year — at Villanova — was a lot closer, as the game went back and forth for 33 minutes before a late 14-2 Wildcats’ run accounted for the final margin of victory.

This time around, the value seems to be in Georgetown’s favor.

In their last game against the Wildcats, the Hoyas got nothing — as in zero points — from star center Jessie Govan, who is averaging a team-high 18.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game this year, as he was in foul trouble for most of the game. And Mac McClung, second on the team in scoring, contributed just four points. If even one of those guys bounces back, I think Georgetown can give Villanova a run for its money.

And speaking of money, I think the real value here is on the moneyline, where the Hoyas are presently +195. The Kelly advantage on this bet is about 7.9 percent. If you choose to take the six points (at the time of this writing), your Kelly advantage is approximately 6.1 percent.

• Villanova is 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last six road games.
• Villanova is 4-1 ATS following a loss.
• When Villanova has been favored, as the Wildcats are today, the total has gone under in 14 of 20 games.
• The home team is 10-4 ATS the last 14 times these teams have met.

Result: Georgetown (+220) won 85-73.