On Jan. 19, 2014, Peyton Manning passed for 400 yards in a 26-16 victory over the New England Patriots that catapulted the Denver Broncos into Super Bowl XLVIII — which they lost in humiliating fashion to the Seattle Seahawks, despite Manning’s 280 yards through the air.

Two years later, Denver and New England again played for the AFC Championship, but this time, Manning, clearly showing the effects of his 39 years of age and multiple neck surgeries, managed just 176 yards passing.

Yet Denver won. And on Feb. 7, 2015, the Broncos beat the Carolina Panthers in the Super Bowl, with Manning throwing for just 141 yards — the second-lowest total in his postseason career.

So, why am I talking about football and Peyton Manning in an article about the Breeders’ Cup? It’s because I think Manning’s story makes the point that time matters when evaluating athletic performances.

Manning is considered by most to be one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. His 71,940 career passing yards are the most ever (at least for now — Drew Brees and Tom Brady will undoubtedly have a say before their careers are over). He tossed 539 career touchdown passes (Brett Favre currently ranks second with 508) and was credited with 45 fourth-quarter comebacks (again, an NFL best).

Yet, the one opponent that Manning could not vanquish was Father Time, the great enemy of all athletes not named Tom Brady.

And time is even harsher on equine athletes, whose athletic lifespan is much, much shorter than the average human’s. This is why I think it is crucial that handicappers always keep the time element firmly in mind when analyzing a horse’s past performances. What was true a month ago, may not be true today and what is true today may not be true a month from now.

With this in mind, I created a time-adjusted speed rating (TASR for short) and tested it on my database of Breeders’ Cup races run from 1997-2018. The rules were simple. To qualify, a horse had to have:

1) A most recent TASR of 75 or greater, earned over today’s general surface (dirt/synthetic or turf).

2) The best last-race TASR in the field.

Number: 134
Winners: 20
Win Rate (ROI): 14.9% (+35.07%)
Place Rate (ROI): 24.6% (+5.75%)
Show Rate (ROI): 35.1% (+3.69%)

Not bad. And the numbers get even better if the horse finished in the money (third-place or better) last time.

This year’s “speed” horses to watch:

Dirt Mile (6^th): Spun to Run (82 TASR, won last race).
Filly & Mare Turf (7^th): Castle Lady (76, second).
Sprint (8^th): Shancelot (76, second).
Mile (9^th): Lucullan (80, won).
Distaff (10^th): Blue Prize (75, won).
Turf (11^th): Alounak (77, second).

Note: Remember, horses with no recent North American races can’t be rated for speed.