Thanks in large part to Ed Fountaine, I broke my Kentucky Derby handicapping maiden in 1984, the year that Swale gave Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr. his first — and only — garland of roses.
So, who is Ed Fountaine, some of you may be asking?
Well, Fountaine was a turf writer for the New York Post. And, every year (or so it seemed), he published a system for selecting the Kentucky Derby winner in American Turf Monthly, a magazine devoted to convincing horseplayers that handicapping can be broken down to a few simple rules and an insufficient workout of past plays. I’m kidding about that latter bit, of course, but there’s no denying that ATM loved its angles and methods.
Fountaine’s system was a perfect example. It awarded points to Kentucky Derby entrants based on a host of criteria that the veteran scribe deemed to be important — and it was that criteria that pointed me to Swale in 1984.
Naturally, the older and wiser I got, the more dubious I became of this kind of “race-ial” profiling, especially since Fountaine’s standards seemed to change every year. In ‘84, for example, he allotted 30 points to the winner of the Arkansas Derby; the year before, the victor got squat. Is it merely a coincidence that Sunny’s Halo captured the 109th Run for the Roses after first triumphing in Hot Springs?
Still, there’s no denying that systems like Fountaine’s are a lot of fun, so in April of 2009 I decided to join the party by producing “Simon’s Historical Investment Technique” for the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, the method lived down to its acronym in the 2009 Run for the Roses, but I re-tooled it in 2010 and, voila, Super Saver proved that my Simon’s Historical Investment Technique doesn’t stink, as he won the Derby just like the method predicted he would.
This year, I have done some additional tinkering and am convinced that I have my S.H.I.T. together at long last.
In fact, in looking at past editions of the Run for the Roses, I found that my top Simon’s Historical Investment Technique selection won seven times for — get this — an ROI of 370.7 percent to win, 139 percent to place and 65.7 percent to show.
Better still, if you’d played the top four choices in every race, you’d have had the Kentucky Derby winner in 21 of 27 years (77.8 percent) and earned a tidy $18,290.16 profit betting just $100 to win on each qualified selection.
| Year | Name | S.H.I.T. Points | Win | Place | Show | Odds | ||
| 1992 | Pistols And Roses | 115 | 1 | 12.80 | f | |||
| Disposal | 110 | 2 | 12.80 | f | ||||
| Lil E. Tee | 100 | 3 1/2 | $35.60 | $12.20 | $7.60 | 16.80 | ||
| Pine Bluff | 100 | 3 1/2 | 10.50 | |||||
| 1993 | Sea Hero | 130 | 1 | $27.80 | $12.80 | $8.00 | 12.90 | |
| Wild Gale | 100 | 2 | $4.20 | 8.50 | f | |||
| Storm Tower | 85 | 3 | 9.00 | |||||
| Bull Inthe Heather | 65 | 4 1/2 | 5.20 | |||||
| Dixieland Heat | 65 | 4 1/2 | 20.80 | |||||
| 1994 | Go For Gin | 160 | 1 1/2 | $20.20 | $8.40 | $5.80 | 9.10 | |
| Holy Bull | 160 | 1 1/2 | (2.20) | |||||
| Brocco | 130 | 3 | 4.30 | |||||
| Powis Castle | 115 | 4 | 20.30 | |||||
| 1995 | Afternoon Deelites | 185 | 1 | 8.70 | ||||
| Talkin Man | 160 | 2 | 4.00 | |||||
| Suave Prospect | 125 | 3 | 13.10 | |||||
| 1996 | Cavonnier | 100 | 1 | $6.20 | $4.40 | 5.60 | ||
| Grindstone | 80 | 2 | $13.80 | $6.00 | $4.00 | 5.90 | ||
| Louis Quatorze | 70 | 3 | 13.10 | e | ||||
| Skip Away | 60 | 4 | 7.70 | |||||
| 1997 | Silver Charm | 120 | 1 1/2 | $10.00 | $4.80 | $4.20 | 4.00 | |
| Free House | 120 | 1 1/2 | $5.80 | 10.60 | ||||
| Phantom On Tour | 110 | 3 | 19.50 | |||||
| 1998 | Indian Charlie | 100 | 2 1/2 | $4.20 | (2.70) | |||
| Cape Town | 100 | 2 1/2 | 4.60 | |||||
| Halory Hunter | 100 | 2 1/2 | 6.60 | |||||
| Old Trieste | 100 | 2 1/2 | 32.10 | |||||
| 1999 | Cat Thief | 125 | 1 | $5.80 | 7.40 | |||
| Charismatic | 115 | 2 | $64.60 | $27.80 | $14.40 | 31.30 | ||
| Menifee | 100 | 4 | $8.40 | $5.80 | 7.00 | |||
| Stephen Got Even | 100 | 4 | 5.10 | |||||
| Vicar | 100 | 4 | 8.20 | |||||
| 2000 | Trippi | 165 | 1 | 6.20 | e | |||
| Captain Steve | 160 | 2 | 8.10 | |||||
| High Yield | 120 | 3 | 6.20 | e | ||||
| Fusaichi Pegasus | 115 | 4 | $6.60 | $5.60 | $4.00 | (2.30) | ||
| 2001 | Balto Star | 135 | 1 | 8.30 | ||||
| Thunder Blitz | 125 | 2 | 25.40 | |||||
| Congaree | 100 | 4 | $7.20 | 7.20 | ||||
| Millennium Wind | 100 | 4 | 9.90 | |||||
| Point Given | 100 | 4 | (1.80) | |||||
| 2002 | War Emblem | 100 | 2 1/2 | $43.00 | $22.80 | $13.60 | 20.50 | |
| Proud Citizen | 100 | 2 1/2 | $24.60 | $13.40 | 23.30 | |||
| Perfect Drift | 100 | 2 1/2 | $6.40 | 7.90 | ||||
| Castle Gandolfo | 100 | 2 1/2 | 14.50 | |||||
| 2003 | Peace Rules | 120 | 1 | $6.00 | 6.30 | |||
| Funny Cide | 100 | 2 | $27.60 | $12.40 | $8.20 | 12.80 | ||
| Scrimshaw | 90 | 3 | 16.50 | |||||
| Brancusi | 70 | 4 | 29.30 | |||||
| 2004 | Tapit | 140 | 1 | 6.40 | ||||
| The Cliff’s Edge | 130 | 2 | 8.20 | |||||
| Smarty Jones | 115 | 4 1/2 | $10.20 | $6.20 | $4.80 | (4.10) | ||
| Borrego | 115 | 4 1/2 | 14.20 | |||||
| Pollard’s Vision | 115 | 4 1/2 | 24.00 | |||||
| Quintons Gold Rush | 115 | 4 1/2 | 51.20 | |||||
| 2005 | Giacomo | 170 | 1 | $102.60 | $45.80 | $19.80 | 50.30 | |
| Coin Silver | 145 | 2 | 38.60 | |||||
| High Limit | 130 | 3 | 22.50 | |||||
| Afleet Alex | 125 | 4 | $4.60 | 4.50 | ||||
| 2006 | Lawyer Ron | 195 | 1 | 10.20 | ||||
| Bob And John | 180 | 2 | 12.90 | |||||
| Barbaro | 175 | 3 | $14.20 | $8.00 | $6.00 | 6.10 | ||
| Sinister Minister | 120 | 4 | 9.70 | |||||
| 2007 | Street Sense | 130 | 1 | $11.80 | $6.40 | $4.60 | (4.90) | |
| Hard Spun | 115 | 2 | $9.80 | $7.00 | 10.00 | |||
| Curlin | 100 | 4 | $5.60 | 5.00 | ||||
| Cowtown Cat | 100 | 4 | 19.80 | |||||
| Scat Daddy | 100 | 4 | 7.20 | |||||
| 2008 | Big Brown | 225 | 1 | $6.80 | $5.00 | $4.80 | (2.40) | |
| Eight Belles | 160 | 2 | $10.60 | $6.40 | 13.10 | |||
| Tale Of Ekati | 120 | 3 | 37.40 | |||||
| Adriano | 115 | 4 1/2 | 28.90 | |||||
| Gayego | 115 | 4 1/2 | 18.90 | |||||
| 2009 | Mine That Bird | 130 | 1 | $103.20 | $54.00 | $25.80 | 50.60 | |
| General Quarters | 110 | 2 | 10.30 | |||||
| Musket Man | 100 | 3 1/2 | $12.00 | 19.00 | ||||
| Friesan Fire | 100 | 3 1/2 | (3.80) | |||||
| 2010 | Super Saver | 100 | 2 | $18.00 | $8.80 | $6.00 | 8.00 | |
| American Lion | 100 | 2 | 23.20 | |||||
| Dean’s Kitten | 100 | 2 | 25.70 | |||||
| Discreetly Mine | 85 | 4 1/2 | 31.60 | |||||
| Mission Impazible | 85 | 4 1/2 | 16.70 | |||||
| 2011 | Pants On Fire | 145 | 1 | 8.10 | ||||
| Decisive Moment | 105 | 2 | 39.30 | |||||
| Animal Kingdom | 100 | 3 | $43.80 | $19.60 | $13.00 | 20.90 | ||
| Mucho Macho Man | 85 | 4 | $7.00 | 9.30 | ||||
| 2012 | El Padrino | 160 | 1 | 29.40 | ||||
| Union Rags | 130 | 2 | 5.10 | |||||
| Bodemeister | 115 | 3 | $6.20 | $5.60 | (4.20) | |||
| Daddy Long Legs | 110 | 4 | 26.00 | |||||
| 2013 | Normandy Invasion | 130 | 1 | 9.30 | ||||
| Revolutionary | 110 | 2 | $5.40 | 6.40 | ||||
| Goldencents | 100 | 3 1/2 | 7.90 | |||||
| Verrazano | 100 | 3 1/2 | 8.70 | |||||
| 2014 | Medal Count | 115 | 1 | 26.20 | ||||
| California Chrome | 100 | 3 | $7.00 | $5.60 | $4.20 | (2.50) | ||
| Samraat | 100 | 3 | 16.70 | |||||
| Vicar’s In Trouble | 100 | 3 | 20.40 | |||||
| 2015 | Dortmund | 160 | 1 1/2 | $4.20 | 4.30 | |||
| Carpe Diem | 160 | 1 1/2 | 7.70 | |||||
| Firing Line | 120 | 3 | $8.40 | $5.40 | 9.50 | |||
| American Pharoah | 100 | 4 | $7.80 | $5.80 | $4.20 | (2.90) | ||
| 2016 | Gun Runner | 100 | 1 | $6.00 | 10.30 | |||
| Lani | 95 | 2 | 29.30 | |||||
| Outwork | 90 | 3 | 26.50 | |||||
| Brody’s Cause | 80 | 4 | 24.90 | |||||
| 2017 | Hence | 110 | 1 | 15.00 | ||||
| Battle Of Midway | 105 | 2 | $20.80 | 40.00 | ||||
| Irish War Cry | 100 | 3 1/2 | 4.80 | |||||
| Always Dreaming | 100 | 3 1/2 | $11.40 | $7.20 | $5.80 | (4.70) | ||
| 2018 | Bolt d’oro | 160 | 1 | 8.90 | ||||
| Audible | 155 | 2 | $5.80 | 7.00 | ||||
| Justify | 100 | 3 1/2 | $7.80 | $6.00 | $4.40 | (2.90) | ||
| Mendelssohn | 100 | 3 1/2 | 6.80 | |||||
So, without further ado, here are this year’s top selections:
WIN: Vekoma (135 points).
PLACE: Maximum Security (115).
SHOW: Spinoff (115).
Best of luck to you all and remember: it pays to know your Simon’s Historical Investment Technique on the first Saturday in May.
