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Aqueduct (11/25/22)
Race 1
1 1/8 miles on dirt

1-ANISTON (5-2): Full sister to Souper Sensational, who has banked nearly half a million dollars and is a Grade 3 winner sprinting and placed in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks as a three-year-old. Aniston has started once and ran like she didn’t have a friend in the world, dawdling all by herself at the back of the pack and going wide on the turn in a one-mile affair over this track on Sept. 18. Can she improve? Of course, but count Jose Ortiz among the dubious as he abandons her for Kayleigh’s Pride.

2-INDYAN PENNY (15-1): Interestingly, her dam’s only other progeny was Joeyjohn and he was foaled in 2010. Joeyjohn did win — four times, in fact — but they were cheaper races in Oklahoma and Ohio. So, while These connections are great with second-time starters, I think this filly is facing a tall order today after a lackluster debut.

3-JUNIPER’S MOON (2-1): Ran very well in her turf debut. Full sister to Figleo Del Re, who broke his maiden—on the dirt—at Laurel Park on Oct. 22, 2021, and her dam (I’m a Chatterbox) was a multiple Grade 1 winner on the dirt. This gal is a deserving favorite and Anthony Dutrow has a 60% ROI in maiden special weight races.

4-MARIA FROM MIAMI (10-1): She’s been a bit disappointing given her breeding. However, a drop to maiden claiming produced instant improvement and she has the early speed to set the pace in this spot, making her a big contender.            

5-KAYLEIGH’S PRIDE (9-2): Favored in her debut, this filly ran very well despite a tough trip. And while her speed figure in that race was nothing to crow about, she seems poised for improvement. On the negative side, trainer Mark Henning has a -82% ROI with horses going a route of ground for the first time (although the stretch-out here is not severe).

6-WELCOMETOMYWORLD (8-1): This one also switches from turf to dirt, but her turf effort was uninspiring. Her late speed ration (LSR) was great, but the race was very slow. Still, I wouldn’t toss her completely.                                                                                                             

7-GIFTED (4-1): Her turf debut wasn’t terrible, as she was in hailing distance for much of the 1 1/16-mile journey. The problem is I’m not sure today’s surface switch does her any favors, as her damsire is War Front and her only half-sibling to win did so on the grass. The workouts are OK, but I’d need a bigger price than her 4-1 morning line to back her.

BET: EXACTA 3,4 WITH 3,4,5

Aqueduct (11/25/22)
Race 3
1 mile on dirt

1-SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN (12-1): Ran without leg bandages last time, which is encouraging given that her last race produced the best Brisnet speed figure of her 21-race career. Interestingly, she beat Wasp that day, yet is 12-1 on the morning line while Wasp is 7-2. I think she can out run her odds.

2-WASP (7-2): Todd Pletcher trainee has finished in the money in 10 of 13 lifetime starts and is especially potent at this track and distance. She’s the kind of horse I see a lot—she doesn’t compel me; she doesn’t repel me. Price will decide my course of action.

3-VIENNA CODE (15-1): Was also in the race with the two fillies to the inside of her and appears to badly need a class drop.         

4-CUPID’S HEART (3-5): Watch the show pool, as this filly could get heavily bet. This is her first try over a route of ground, but her late speed rations (LSRs) suggest it will be no problem, especially since today’s race is a one-turn mile. All her wins have been by daylight and her only bad race came in her stakes debut. My only issues with this daughter of Cupid are the price and the fact that her pedigree is very speed oriented (5.00 Dosage Index — for what that’s worth). Again, this does not mean much in a one-turn mile event, but I will definitely bet against her in a negative-pool scenario, as the pace may work against her should she decide to rate.

5-SPIKED (4-1): I think this gal holds the key to the race as she dons blinkers for the first time after flashing decent early speed last time. Based on a study I did, the addition of blinkers improves a horse’s early speed ration (ESR) by about two lengths, meaning Spiked could be on the engine today with a jockey who’s very good at getting his mounts to relax. If that happens, this filly could prove tough to overhaul in the stretch. In any event, I think this is a good spot for her.

6-SPOOKY ROAD (10-1): Wheels back quickly after a career-best performance over this course and distance. The “figs” crowd will surely be expecting a bounce, but I’m not so sure. Since Linda Rice claimed this filly for $16K at Saratoga on Aug. 20, she’s rapidly improved, culminating in a dominant win last time with a very solid -6 LSR. If she’s anywhere near her morning line odds, she’s a bargain.

BET: WIN ON 6. EXACTA KEY BOX 6 WITH 1,4,5. SHOW ON 1,2,5,6 IF CUPID’S HEART CONTROLS AT LEAST 75% OF THE POOL.