I’m always looking to improve my prediction models, and this weekend was a huge step forward. The grades have not been working, but I’ve been very reluctant to ditch them because they are based on the historical advantage each game scenario offers. So, I’ve been tinkering with them all season.

Yesterday, they performed as I always hoped they would. Check out these numbers on the week’s football games:

Ungraded Plays

(All bets are the same amount)

NCAAF: 6-3, +20.35% ROI
NFL: 5-2, +29.49% ROI

Graded Plays

(Bet size varies based on the grade of the betting event)

NCAAF: 6-3, +27.44% ROI
NFL: 5-2, +35.88% ROI

Perhaps better still, I think I fixed the issues plaguing my NHL betting report. Not only were the fair odds wrong on the report, but I found a few other helpful metrics.

The NBA? That’s another story. I still don’t have that one figured out yet — but I’m working on it!