After compiling a 13-2 SU record against Iowa State from 1998-2018, the Cyclones have been victorious in the last three matchups.
Both teams are great against the run and decent against the pass.
The last time I played against the Texas Longhorns (4-2), they made a fool out of me, routing Oklahoma 49-0. I definitely think they are the better team here, but I believe Iowa State can keep it close — maybe.
BET: IOWA STATE +15 ½ ****
North Carolina State (5-1) is 9-2 against Syracuse (5-0) since 1997 — and it hasn’t mattered much whether the Wolfpack has been favored or not. They’re 3-0 as underdogs in the series, including a 32-31 outright win when the Orangemen were 24 ½-point favorites.
Of course, while historical records are interesting (at least to me), they are not particularly relevant. What is relevant is the Wolfpack’s 2.74 Bet Rating and the fact that they are getting three points today.
It is also relevant that Syracuse’s strength—a passing game that is averaging 9.4 yards per attempt—is countered by North Carolina State’s pass defense, which has allowed a paltry 5.4 yards per pass attempt (arguably against better foes than those Syracuse has encountered).
BET: 60% TO WIN ON NC STATE +3 ****
40% ON NC STATE TO WIN AT +140 ***
This game is very challenging for me. Here’s the deal: My algorithms say Central Michigan (1-5) is a vulnerable favorite — but that designation is based solely on the Chippewas’ performance this year.
The fact is Akron (1-5) is T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E.
The Zips offense is averaging a measly 76.5 yards rushing per game (2.6 yards at a time), while their defense is giving up more ground than the French did on April 30, 1803 — 5.0 per rush attempt and 9.99 per pass attempt.
The history of this series—and my algorithms—say take Akron and the 13 points, but I’d be very cautious here. The Zips could cover… but they could also get blown out.
BET: AKRON +13 **
After years of getting beat down by the Pirates (3-3), both straight up and against the spread, the Tigers (4-2) appear to have turned things around in recent years.
From 1995-2012, East Carolina was 11-4 SU and an amazing 14-1 ATS against Memphis. But beginning with Mike Norville, who was made the Tigers’ head coach in 2016, and continuing with Ryan Silverfield, who took over in 2019 and guided Memphis to a bowl win in 2020, the Tigers have been a different football team, winning and covering in two of the last three meeting between these teams.
Both teams have lousy defenses against the pass, so the quarterbacks should have a huge say in the outcome.
BET: MEMPHIS +6 ½ ****
The Rainbow Warriors (1-5) are currently yielding 6.2 yards per rushing attempt — music to the ears of the Wolf Pack (2-4), which has struggled to establish a ground game this year.
My algorithms and history suggest these teams will go under the total, which admittedly is much lower than seasons past.
Still, the under has cashed in 14 of 21 meetings since 2001.
BET: UNDER 49 ½ POINTS ****
